A recent report by a U.S. think tank, the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said that the new U.S. administration under Donald Trump has a strong opportunity to resolve the Sahara conflict.
The report emphasized that Trump’s strong relations with Morocco, combined with European support for the kingdom’s autonomy plan and the declining international support for the Polisario Front, could lead to a resolution during Trump’s second term.
The report noted that progress toward a diplomatic and peaceful solution this year is particularly significant, coinciding with Morocco’s preparations to mark the 50th anniversary of the Green March.
In December 2020, the U.S. issued a declaration recognizing Morocco’s sovereignty over the Sahara, marking a shift in its policy on the disputed territory.
The report said that President Joe Biden’s administration studied Trump’s approach and chose a middle path, neither retracting nor fully implementing Trump’s stance.
Official U.S. maps continue to show the Sahara as part of Morocco, and U.S. State Department reports consider the region as Moroccan. However, Biden’s administration has not made any efforts to establish consulates in the Sahara, nor did the 2025 State Department budget request any funding for a physical presence in the region.
As Trump enters his second term, the report suggests several ways his administration could continue its 2020 policy, including opening a real consulate in the Sahara.
Other options include increasing official U.S. visits to the region, including the Sahara in the African Lion military exercises, or holding a U.S.-Morocco strategic dialogue in the region.
Washington could also pressure certain European countries to establish diplomatic presences in the Sahara.
The report highlighted that Trump’s administration could alter the direction of bilateral aid in southern Morocco to reinforce its position on Moroccan sovereignty. It further noted that the U.S.-Morocco free trade agreement could be expanded to include goods produced in the Sahara, which are currently excluded.
For the recognition of Morocco’s sovereignty over the Sahara to be fully implemented, the report stressed the need for international support, especially from key global players.
It pointed out unresolved issues such as borders, the autonomy proposal, and the situation of refugees in Tindouf camps, which Morocco, Algeria, and the Polisario must address, including the repatriation and reintegration of refugees.
The document emphasized that a peaceful and secure Morocco is a strategic objective for Trump’s second term, with Morocco’s strategic location on the Atlantic and Mediterranean coasts making it a key partner in international alliances. Additionally, the U.S. holds positive historical relations with Algeria, which could allow Washington to collaborate with Algeria in pressuring the Polisario to accept some form of agreement.
The report also warned that the U.S. administration may initially overlook the Sahara issue. Failure to adopt a responsible, long-term approach to resolving the conflict could lead to escalating violence, threatening regional stability, the economy, and the broader geopolitical landscape.
The escalating conflict could also jeopardize oil and gas supplies from Algeria to Europe, undermine efforts to control irregular migration across the Mediterranean, and even threaten commercial shipping in the Strait of Gibraltar.
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