Morocco has retained its intermediate country risk rating in the latest country and sector risk barometer published by credit insurer Coface, maintaining a stronger risk profile than several neighboring countries despite mounting global economic uncertainty driven by energy and supply chain disruptions.
In its June 2026 Country and Sector Risk Barometer, Coface maintained Morocco’s country risk rating at “B” while keeping its business climate assessment at “A4,” indicating an environment considered satisfactory for businesses.
The decision comes as Coface downgraded eight countries and revised 45 sector assessments worldwide, including 41 downgrades, amid the economic fallout from more than 15 weeks of tensions in the Persian Gulf and the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
According to the report, disruptions to maritime trade have driven up energy prices, freight costs, industrial input prices and inflation expectations, placing additional pressure on global supply chains.
Despite those challenges, Morocco continues to rank more favorably than several North African countries, including Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt, Mauritania and Libya, which remain in higher-risk categories.
Coface attributed Morocco’s stable rating to solid macroeconomic fundamentals, a gradually diversifying economy, growing industrial attractiveness and improvements in the business climate.
The insurer also pointed to persistent structural vulnerabilities, particularly the dominance of very small enterprises, which are generally more exposed to payment delays, cash-flow pressures and rising production costs.
Although Morocco is not directly at the center of the Middle East crisis, Coface identified it as one of the African economies most exposed to higher petroleum consumption, alongside South Africa, Egypt and Nigeria.
The report said Morocco remains vulnerable through its energy import bill, industrial demand and the sensitivity of several sectors to higher transportation and raw material costs.
Beyond energy, Coface warned that African economies also face risks linked to food prices, logistics and financing conditions.
The insurer forecasts African economic growth of about 3.8% in 2026, rising slightly to 3.9% in 2027, while warning that inflation, fertilizer shortages, unfavorable weather conditions and tighter financing are likely to weigh on economic activity.
For Morocco, those pressures could intensify existing challenges, including dependence on imported energy, exposure to higher import costs, pressure on corporate profit margins and the impact of rising food prices on household purchasing power.
Coface stressed that maintaining Morocco’s rating does not mean the economy is insulated from external shocks.
The report noted that sustained increases in production, transport or financing costs could place additional strain on the liquidity of the country’s most vulnerable businesses, particularly small enterprises already facing structural payment delays.
The insurer also highlighted the resilience of Morocco’s productive sector as a key factor going forward.
Industries integrated into global value chains remain exposed to fluctuations in logistics and commodity prices, while businesses focused on the domestic market continue to depend heavily on household purchasing power and access to credit.
Coface further noted that business insolvencies continue to rise across advanced economies, with an acceleration recorded during the first quarter of 2026.
While Morocco was not specifically identified among the affected countries, the insurer said economies dominated by small businesses are generally more vulnerable when financial conditions tighten and borrowing costs increase.
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