Morocco’s economy is expected to grow 4.4% in 2026 before slowing sharply to 2.9% in 2027 as this year’s agricultural rebound fades, according to Bank Al-Maghrib’s latest forecasts.
The central bank expects agricultural value added to rise 16% this year, supported by a cereal harvest estimated at 93 million quintals. But it projects a 7.6% contraction in agriculture next year, assuming cereal production returns to an average 50 million quintals.
Outside agriculture, momentum is already weaker. Non-agricultural growth is forecast to slow from 4.5% in 2025 to 3.1% in 2026, reflecting softer-than-expected activity in mining and manufacturing, before recovering to 4% in 2027.
The labor market has nevertheless continued to improve. Morocco created 406,000 net jobs year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, while unemployment fell to 9.5% nationally, 11.9% in urban areas and 5.4% in rural areas.
.Bank Al-Maghrib expects the energy import bill to rise 28.4% to MAD 138.1 billion this year before falling to MAD 116 billion in 2027. Equipment imports are projected to reach MAD 250.7 billion as public and private investment continues to support demand for capital goods.
Exports are expected to provide part of the offset. Automotive exports are projected to recover gradually and reach MAD 202.2 billion in 2027, while phosphate and derivative exports are forecast to rise 9.7% this year and 12.1% next year to MAD 122.6 billion.
The current account deficit is expected to widen from 2.4% of GDP in 2025 to 4.6% this year before narrowing to 3% in 2027. Official reserves are nevertheless projected to reach MAD 502.8 billion at the end of 2026 and MAD 515.3 billion next year.
add your comment
Terms of publication : Not to offend the writer, people, sacred things, or attack religions or the divine self, and refrain from racist incitement and insults.