Spanish study finds no link between irregular migration and rising crime

A new academic study in Spain has found no positive correlation between irregular migration and crime rates, challenging a narrative frequently invoked in political debates over immigration.

The research, conducted by Jesús Javier Sánchez Barricarte, a professor of demography and sociology at Carlos III University of Madrid, analyzed crime patterns among adults in Spain between 2007 and 2023. The findings were published in the Spanish Journal of Sociological Research (REIS).

Drawing on data from Spain’s National Statistics Institute (INE), the study examined nearly 5.6 million criminal convictions recorded over the 16-year period. Researchers focused on criminal offenses rather than individual offenders, noting that a single person may have been convicted of multiple crimes during the same period.

According to the study, standardized crime rates increased significantly in Spain between 2007 and 2023. However, the rise was considerably steeper among the Spanish-born population, where crime rates increased by 120%, compared with a 70% increase among foreign-born residents.

After adjusting for age and sex, two factors strongly associated with criminal activity, the difference in crime rates between Spaniards and foreigners narrowed by at least 48%, suggesting that demographic characteristics account for a substantial part of the disparity.

The research also examined trends across specific categories of crime. Intentional homicide rates declined by 18% among Spaniards but increased by 8% among foreign-born residents. In contrast, offenses such as sexual assault and physical assault recorded larger increases among the Spanish population.

Sánchez Barricarte found that some foreign groups with legal residency status, including nationals from France, Belgium, Romania and Portugal, recorded higher standardized crime rates than certain migrant populations that include significant numbers of undocumented residents.

The study concluded that treating migrants as a single, homogeneous group leads to misleading interpretations of criminal behavior.

“Disaggregating data by geographic origin reveals notable variation, invalidating any homogeneous stereotypical interpretation of criminal behavior across the migrant population as a whole,” the report stated.

The analysis identified other factors more consistently associated with crime levels, including age, sex, urbanization, poverty and access to public services. It also found that some criminal patterns often attributed to migration were more closely linked to other phenomena, such as short-term tourism or transnational organized crime networks.

The author argued that legalization and integration policies may contribute to reducing crime by improving access to lawful employment and facilitating social inclusion. He also warned that restrictive migration policies could have unintended economic consequences that may, in turn, contribute to higher levels of criminal activity.

The findings come amid ongoing debates in Spain and across Europe over immigration policy, border management and public security, adding new empirical evidence to discussions often shaped by political rhetoric.