Report: AI could put 1.5 million Moroccan jobs at direct risk by 2030

Artificial intelligence could place around 1.5 million jobs in Morocco at direct technical risk by 2030, while affecting millions more across key sectors, according to a new strategic report warning of major structural changes in the country’s labor market.

The report, published by the African Center for Strategic Studies and Digitalization (CAESD) under the title “Artificial Intelligence and the Reshaping of Labor Markets in Arab and African Countries: Horizon 2030-2035,” said Morocco is entering a “sensitive transitional phase” marked by high pressure for economic adaptation.

According to the study, about 4.6 million additional jobs involving cognitive and analytical tasks will face varying degrees of disruption, bringing the total share of affected employment to 14% of Morocco’s workforce.

The report estimates that while the digital economy may generate around 180,000 new jobs during the same period, the country could still face a net loss of approximately 1.32 million positions by 2030.

It identified several high-risk sectors, including business process outsourcing (BPO), where call centers and remote services are rapidly being automated, as well as banking, insurance, public administration and transactional services. Standardized industries such as automotive manufacturing and textiles are also considered vulnerable.

Researchers highlighted what they called a “qualification paradox,” warning that university graduates may face heightened exposure to disruption, with up to 30% of highly educated workers at risk under a more severe scenario due to generative AI’s ability to replicate advanced cognitive skills.

The report also warned of declining professional mobility for young people entering the labor market, particularly in entry-level jobs, and pointed to increased digital vulnerability for women, who are more concentrated in administrative and support roles that face automation exposure rates of up to 65%.

Looking ahead to 2035, the study predicts a second wave of disruption driven by advanced physical technologies such as robotics, which could reduce Morocco’s traditional competitiveness based on low-cost labor in sectors like agriculture, textiles, construction and logistics.

Under that scenario, the number of high-risk jobs could rise to 2.9 million, with nearly 8 million positions either fully or partially affected.

The report also examined Morocco’s large informal economy, which accounts for 67.6% of activity. While informality may offer temporary protection from automation because of limited digital integration, researchers said it also traps workers in low-value jobs and prevents them from benefiting from productivity gains.

Despite national initiatives such as the Digital Morocco 2030 strategy and the Made in Morocco AI program, the report noted a major implementation gap. Morocco needs to retrain between 250,000 and 480,000 workers annually, while universities and vocational institutions produced only about 22,000 digital graduates in 2024.

CAESD concluded that Morocco has a narrow window until 2030 to redesign its national skills system, establish portable social protection mechanisms that protect workers rather than specific jobs, and ensure responsible use of algorithms in recruitment and employment management.