Mali’s shift on Sahara signals growing regional support for Morocco

Mali’s decision to withdraw its recognition of the Polisario Front and back Morocco’s autonomy plan for the Sahara marks a significant shift in regional dynamics, analysts say, reflecting growing support for Morocco’s territorial claims and concerns over security in the Sahel.

Mali recently announced its support for Morocco’s sovereignty over the disputed territory and endorsed Rabat’s autonomy proposal as a “realistic” solution to the long-running conflict. The move is seen as part of a broader recalibration of alliances in the region amid rising security challenges.

Experts say the decision reflects deep historical, cultural and religious ties between Mali and Morocco, as well as shifting priorities among Sahel countries facing threats from armed groups and instability.

Abdellah El Houssein Miga, director of a Sahel-based research center, said the move had long been anticipated and aligns with public sentiment in Mali. He pointed to longstanding ties between the two countries, including historical links dating back centuries and shared religious heritage.

“The previous position was difficult to understand, especially given Mali’s own experience with separatist movements,” Miga said, adding that the new stance better reflects both popular and strategic considerations.

Analysts also highlight growing economic and development cooperation between the two countries, which has reinforced bilateral ties despite occasional administrative challenges affecting travel and exchanges.

The shift is expected to strengthen cooperation on security issues, particularly in combating extremism in the Sahel. Observers say Morocco’s experience in countering radicalization could play a greater role in regional efforts to address instability.

Abdelfattah Fatihi, head of a strategic studies center, described Mali’s decision as a “strategic turning point” that could influence other countries in the region. He said, in a statement to Hespress AR, that the move reflects increasing awareness among Sahel states of the security risks posed by armed groups and their alleged links to separatist movements.

The development also comes amid what analysts describe as a growing international consensus around Morocco’s autonomy initiative as a basis for resolving the dispute. Mali’s position is expected to add momentum to that trend, particularly within African diplomatic circles.

Observers say the decision could contribute to reshaping alliances in Africa, potentially encouraging other countries to reconsider their positions on the Moroccan Sahara and reinforcing regional cooperation frameworks focused on stability and development.