The preliminary American draft resolution on Western Sahara, dated 20 October 2026, could represent a significant turning point in the international management of one of North Africa’s longest-running political disputes. It considers as triumphal of Morocco`s settlement process since the adoption of 2797 decision in 2025.
Its proposed restructuring of the United Nations Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO), the adoption of Morocco’s expanded and updated autonomy proposal as the sole basis for negotiations, and the call for comprehensive refugee registration in the Tindouf camps collectively point towards a new diplomatic approach.
The American draft can be regarded as a significant diplomatic achievement for Morocco’s Royal Diplomacy, reflecting its sustained efforts to broaden international support for the Moroccan Autonomy Initiative and consolidate growing diplomatic recognition of the proposal as a credible framework for resolving the Moroccan Sahara dispute.
The central significance of this initiative lies in the possibility of moving beyond an international framework that has managed the conflict for decades without producing a final settlement. Rather than continuing to rely on an open-ended military peacekeeping presence and an unresolved referendum process, the proposed approach places political negotiations, institutional autonomy and humanitarian solutions at the center of the international agenda.
For Morocco, the draft represents an opportunity to consolidate the diplomatic momentum behind its autonomy initiative, reinforce the connection between sovereignty and regional self-government, and insist that the humanitarian consequences of the dispute must be addressed through a credible international process.
The draft also raises a fundamental question concerning the future of international engagement: should the United Nations continue to maintain its existing military configuration indefinitely, or should its presence evolve towards a more focused political mission designed to facilitate a negotiated settlement?
Addressing this key question provides a direct response to Morocco’s repeated argument that MINURSO’s military presence has become increasingly unjustified since 1991. Although the document remains a preliminary draft rather than an adopted Security Council resolution, its reported provisions merit serious strategic analysis. If retained in the final text, they could reshape the relationship between the political process, the UN presence and the humanitarian situation in Tindouf.
- Ending MINURSO’s military mandate
Since its establishment in 1991, MINURSO has operated within a framework initially associated with a settlement plan and a proposed referendum. More than three decades later, the anticipated referendum has not taken place, and the ceasefire broke down in 2020.
The mission has nevertheless continued to monitor military developments, report on the security situation and support the UN-led political process. In practice, however, MINURSO has proved unable to exert a decisive influence on the military dynamics on the ground, while the Polisario Front’s military escalation—including the attack on the city of Smara—has drawn international attention and reinforced concerns over the effectiveness of the existing security framework.
The American draft proposes ending MINURSO’s peacekeeping mandate on 30 April 2027 and transforming it into a special political mission from 1 May 2027. It also proposes changing the mission’s name to the United Nations Mission for Western Sahara (MINUSO), removing the explicit reference to a referendum. Furthermore, it calls for a reduction of at least 50 per cent in the authorized regular military component by 31 January 2027, alongside the consolidation and closure of certain team sites.
From Morocco’s strategic perspective, these proposals could offer three principal advantages.
First, they would acknowledge that the institutional framework established in 1991 has not achieved its original political objective. The continued existence of a military peacekeeping structure should not, become an end in itself. International missions must be periodically reassessed against the political realities they are expected to address.
Second, the proposed transition could bring the UN presence into closer alignment with the current diplomatic agenda. If negotiations are to concentrate on a political settlement based on autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty, a mission focused on political facilitation, reporting, confidence-building and support for negotiations may be better suited to that objective than a structure whose name and historical origins remain associated with an unimplemented referendum. Accordingly, the proposed renaming of MINURSO as MINUSO should reflect the evolution of the UN framework towards a political settlement, moving beyond the referendum approach, which has remained unimplemented since 1991.
Third, a transition towards a political mission could allow international resources and institutional capacities to be reassessed in favor of the tasks most relevant to a settlement. This could include support for negotiations, mine action, political reporting and the implementation of any future agreement.
The strategic case for ending the military mandate is therefore not simply that fewer troops would be present. It is that the international approach should evolve from managing the consequences of a protracted dispute towards supporting the political conditions necessary to resolve it. For Morocco, the principal advantage would be a reorientation of international engagement towards a political outcome consistent with its autonomy initiative, while retaining the institutional safeguards needed for a stable transition.
- Establishing a clear and workable negotiating framework under Morocco’s autonomy proposal
The most consequential political provision of the reported draft is its designation of Morocco’s expanded and updated autonomy proposal as the sole basis for negotiations. The text reportedly reiterates that genuine autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty is the only viable solution to the question of Moroccan Sahara.
This formulation would represent a significant development in the negotiating framework. Security Council Resolution 2797 (2025) supported negotiations taking Morocco’s autonomy proposal as a basis, while reaffirming the objective of a just, lasting and mutually acceptable political solution consistent with the UN Charter. The reported 2026 draft would go further by making the Moroccan proposal the exclusive negotiating platform.
From Rabat’s perspective, this would offer greater strategic clarity and reduce the risk of negotiations remaining indefinitely divided between incompatible political frameworks. A negotiating process requires more than the repetition of competing positions. It needs a practical framework within which participants can discuss institutional arrangements, powers, responsibilities, rights and implementation. Morocco’s autonomy proposal provides a concrete starting point for such discussions, centered on regional self-government within the framework of Moroccan sovereignty.
The proposed exclusive negotiating framework would also place greater responsibility on the other participants to engage substantively. Rather than simply reiterating objections to the Moroccan proposal, they would be expected, under the reported draft, to respond to its provisions and participate in negotiations focused on its content. The final legal and political implications would depend on the adopted resolution and the substance of the negotiations. Nevertheless, if the proposed language is retained, Morocco would gain a more clearly defined negotiating platform around which diplomatic efforts could be organized.
- Refugee Registration is a Strategic and Humanitarian Priority
One of the most significant dimensions of the American draft is its request that the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) complete the registration of the refugee population in the Tindouf area within six months. The reported provision requires the process to follow international refugee law and UNHCR standards, without interference, and calls for unhindered access and freedom of movement to facilitate both registration and the assessment of durable solutions. This issue deserves to be treated as a central component of the political process rather than a secondary humanitarian concern.
`For decades, the population living in the Tindouf camps has remained at the center of the humanitarian consequences of the dispute. The absence of a final settlement has prolonged displacement and international humanitarian dependence. The reported draft recognizes this situation as a matter requiring renewed attention and calls for international funding to be directed towards individual, voluntary and durable solutions.
For Morocco, comprehensive UNHCR registration could have three important implications: First, it could establish a more reliable basis for humanitarian assistance. Credible registration would help UNHCR assess the population’s protection needs, plan assistance and improve accountability. Reliable information is essential to ensuring that humanitarian programs are designed around the actual needs and circumstances of the people concerned.
Second, it could strengthen individual protection and informed choice. A registration process conducted independently and according to international standards could provide a stronger foundation for assessing individual circumstances and identifying appropriate durable solutions. The central objective must be to ensure that people are treated as individuals with rights and choices, rather than as an undifferentiated population within a prolonged political conflict.
Third, it could help move the international response beyond indefinite displacement. Registration, combined with independent assessments and access to the population, could support a more structured discussion of voluntary repatriation where appropriate, local integration where feasible, and other durable solutions consistent with international refugee law. The distinction between registration and relocation is essential. Registration does not itself authorize the forced closure of camps, the involuntary return of refugees or the displacement of residents. The appropriate strategic objective is to create the conditions in which individuals can make informed, voluntary decisions about their futures, with their safety and dignity protected. For Morocco, the importance of the provision lies in the prospect of replacing uncertainty with reliable humanitarian information and replacing an indefinite situation of displacement with a process directed towards lasting solutions.
- Algeria’s responsibility: facilitating UNHCR access and humanitarian freedom of movement
The implementation of the proposed registration exercise would require effective cooperation from all relevant actors. Algeria’s role is particularly important because it hosts the Tindouf camps and would be a central interlocutor in establishing the conditions necessary for UNHCR to carry out its work. Morocco regards Algeria as a central actor in the dispute, whereas Algeria has traditionally maintained that it is not a party to the territorial dispute. Whatever the differences in political and legal characterization, practical cooperation with the UN humanitarian process is indispensable.
Algeria should facilitate unhindered access for UNHCR, ensure that the agency can operate independently and help guarantee the freedom of movement required for registration and the assessment of durable solutions. The Polisario Front and all other relevant actors should likewise cooperate fully with the agency and refrain from interfering with its humanitarian mandate. This is not merely a question of diplomatic positioning. It concerns the rights, protection and future choices of the people living in the camps.
A credible registration exercise would help establish a stronger evidentiary basis for humanitarian planning, while improving the international community’s ability to assess needs and evaluate possible solutions. Conversely, any obstruction of independent registration or restrictions on humanitarian access would undermine the effectiveness of the process and prolong uncertainty. Algeria’s responsibility for the abuses and human rights violations associated with this conflict has significantly been confirmed, in terms of undermining the protection of the refugees and placed their lives and fundamental rights at risk. By foregrounding the humanitarian dimension of the dispute, the draft aligns with Morocco’s longstanding claims regarding the situation of Sahrawis in the Tindouf camps, where concerns have been raised over restrictions on freedom of movement and the alleged confinement of camp residents.
The proposed draft also reportedly allows the Security Council to consider additional measures if the parties fail to engage constructively in the political process. Although the text does not specify the nature of such measures, this provision could reinforce the expectation that cooperation must be demonstrated through practical action rather than declarations alone.
For Morocco, the appropriate diplomatic position is clear: Algeria should be forced to translate its stated support for international diplomacy into concrete cooperation with UNHCR and the wider political process.
Such cooperation would also serve a broader regional interest. The persistence of the Moroccan Sahara dispute has contributed to strategic mistrust between Morocco and Algeria, weakening the prospects for Maghreb integration at a time when the region faces serious economic, security and development challenges.
5.Durable Solution Will Ending the Normalization of Prolonged Displacement
The humanitarian situation in Tindouf raises a wider question: how can the international community ensure that the provision of emergency assistance does not become a substitute for pursuing durable solutions?
Humanitarian assistance remains essential, and it must never be withdrawn as a means of exerting political pressure. Nevertheless, the prolonged nature of displacement requires an equally serious commitment to identifying sustainable options for those affected. The reported American draft’s emphasis on individual, voluntary and durable solutions could provide a more structured basis for addressing this challenge.
For Morocco, the long-term objective should be to ensure that the humanitarian dimension is no longer disconnected from the search for a political settlement. This does not mean subordinating humanitarian decisions to political objectives. It means recognizing that a credible political process and an independent humanitarian framework can complement one another while maintaining their respective mandates. UNHCR should retain responsibility for determining the appropriate humanitarian procedures and assessing possible solutions in accordance with its mandate and international standards. Residents must be able to make informed choices without coercion or political intimidation.
At the same time, the international community should insist that displacement cannot simply be treated as a permanent condition without continued efforts to identify alternatives. The needs, preferences and protection of the people concerned must remain at the center of those efforts. A durable settlement of the Sahara cause could create a more favorable political environment for addressing these humanitarian challenges. Equally, improved humanitarian accountability could help reduce uncertainty and strengthen the credibility of the wider political process.
- Consultation With Sahrawis: Legitimacy through Participation
Another important provision of the reported draft concerns the role of the UN Secretary-General’s Personal Envoy, Staffan de Mistura. The envoy would be asked to consult a broad range of Sahrawi constituencies and relevant stakeholders, including people inside the territory, residents of the Tindouf camps and Sahrawis living abroad. In this context, it is important to question the Polisario Front’s claim to represent the entire Sahrawi population, as its representativeness remains a central point of contention in the dispute. A substantial proportion of Sahrawis live in Morocco’s southern provinces, where they participate in the country’s political, economic, and social institutions. From Morocco’s perspective, this reality challenges the Polisario Front’s claim to exclusive representation and underscores the need for any political settlement to take into account the diverse voices and aspirations of Sahrawis, both within the territory and beyond.
This provision matters because the sustainability of any political settlement depends not only on negotiations among political actors but also on the extent to which the affected population can express its views and aspirations.
For Morocco, inclusive consultations could provide an opportunity to demonstrate the political and institutional substance of its autonomy initiative. The proposal’s credibility would be strengthened by detailed discussion of how regional self-government could operate in practice, how representatives would be selected, how public institutions would be held accountable and how rights and development priorities would be protected. Consultations should be broad, meaningful and conducted in a manner that allows different perspectives to be expressed. They should not be reduced to a procedural exercise or interpreted as automatic endorsement of a predetermined outcome.
The inclusion of Sahrawis from the territory, the camps and the diaspora would also help ensure that the political process is not confined to the positions of the negotiating parties. It would recognize the diversity of experiences and aspirations among the people whose future is at stake. For Morocco, the strategic opportunity is to demonstrate that autonomy can provide a practical framework for political participation, regional governance and development within Moroccan sovereignty.
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