Morocco on track for an eighth drought year - what we know so far

Morocco is edging toward what experts say could mark an eighth consecutive year of drought, as delayed autumn rains deepen concern among farmers and hydrology specialists over shrinking water reserves and shifting seasonal patterns. 

What we know about the current season

Rainfall disruptions have extended into mid-November, with Meteorological services forecasting scattered showers and thunderstorms over the High Atlas, Souss, northern coasts, and parts of the Saharan provinces, but experts say the broader pattern is one of delayed winters, longer summers, and blurred seasons

Agricultural consultant Riyad Ouchtita says the changes have affected sowing calendars and reduced planted areas, already constrained by the financial strain of recent years.

Hydrologists warn that Morocco is moving through successive phases of drought: from meteorological (lack of rain) to hydrological (depleted rivers and dams) and toward soil-moisture drought, which can strip land of fertility and make recovery slower and more costly. 

Dam reserves have repeatedly hovered around a third of capacity in recent years.A Carnegie analysis in 2025 described Morocco as having entered its seventh consecutive year of drought, with dam levels down and livestock herds shrinking. 

How unusual is an eight-year drought?

Historically, Morocco has seen multi-year droughts before. World Bank and academic studies point to the early 1980s as one of the longest and harshest episodes, triggering macroeconomic stress and food insecurity, followed by severe events in the early 1990s and 2000–2001. 

What is different today is that these dry spells are coming in closer succession and under higher temperatures.

Seasonal forecasts can still be wrong in both directions, as a few strong Atlantic systems this winter could ease pressure on dams and soils without erasing years of deficit.

 What is uncertain is whether Morocco is simply in an unusually long dry cycle or crossing into a new baseline of chronic aridity.

Climate research leans toward the second scenario. IPCC assessments and MedECC reports find that the Mediterranean and North Africa are warming about 20 percent faster than the global average, with projections of declining winter rainfall, longer droughts and higher evaporation in coming decades.

 Modelled drought duration over Mediterranean North Africa is expected to roughly double by the second half of the century under high-emissions scenarios.

What remains unclear is at what point repeated dry years translate into irreversible soil degradation in key basins, when rural migration accelerates, and how much of the agricultural model can be maintained with a mix of desalination, transfers and demand management.

In practical terms, “entering an eighth year of drought” means three things at once: farmers facing another season of delayed decisions and higher risk; water managers juggling scarce surface and groundwater with new, costly supply sources; and policymakers operating under growing evidence that this is not a passing anomaly but a prolonged drought consistent with climate projections.

How Morocco is responding

The state has begun to pivot from emergency response to structural adaptation. The national water strategy foresees around 14 billion dirhams in investments to expand desalination, wastewater reuse and inter-basin transfers, targeting about 1.7 billion cubic metres of additional water from desalination by the second half of the decade. 

Authorities are also tightening controls on groundwater and restricting water-intensive crops in arid regions, while trying to protect rural incomes.

What remains unclear

Whether the current season will confirm a formal eighth drought year depends on December–January rainfall, the period that defines Morocco’s agricultural baseline. 

Experts say isolated storms cannot compensate for structural shortages, making the coming weeks decisive for the 2025 agricultural cycle and national water security.