Nearly two-thirds of Moroccan institutional investors expect Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM) to lower its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points at its upcoming policy meeting on June 24, according to a new survey by BMCE Capital Global Research (BKGR).
The rate-cut expectations — held by 63% of respondents — reflect Morocco’s tame inflation outlook and resilient economic activity, alongside continued monetary easing by the European Central Bank, BKGR said in its latest Flash Strategy note.
The survey also shows that 88% of participants consider the current monetary policy stance appropriate, while 75% forecast two 25-basis-point cuts before year-end.
While a rate reduction appears likely, BKGR flagged geopolitical risks as a potential constraint. “The central bank may take into account the inflationary spillover risks stemming from the armed conflict between Iran and Israel,” the research note said.
No respondents expect BAM to raise rates in 2025, even in the event of renewed inflationary pressures, underscoring consensus around a dovish outlook.
BAM’s upcoming meeting comes amid a volatile global backdrop, with persistent uncertainty driven by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s protectionist monetary stance and escalating trade tensions with China.
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