Morocco is expected to navigate in 2025,a challenging global trade landscape, characterized by rising customs tensions and a slowdown in export growth, Fitch Solutions predicts.
While exports will face headwinds, the country’s domestic demand, agriculture, and investment sectors will provide resilience and sustain overall economic growth.
The impact of new tariffs imposed by the United States, though the direct trade between Morocco and the U.S. remains limited, is expected to ripple through Morocco’s primary trading partner, Europe.
This shift could particularly affect industries such as automotive, electrical equipment, and construction, which make up a substantial portion of Moroccan exports.
Fitch Solutions forecasts that export growth will slow sharply, from 6.1% in 2024 to just 2.9% in 2025, its weakest level since 2020.
Consequently, the national GDP growth projection for 2025 has been revised downward, from 4.8% to 4.3%, signaling the economic strain.
Despite these external challenges, Morocco’s economy is expected to benefit from several internal factors. Household consumption, bolstered by a decline in inflation, is expected to remain robust.
Fitch Solutions anticipates that inflation will drop to 1.1% in 2025, driven by a decrease in global oil prices, which will enhance purchasing power. Additionally, the agricultural sector, recovering from a period of drought, is expected to support rural incomes and overall demand.
Investment in the private sector is also likely to remain strong, largely due to a more accommodating monetary policy from Bank Al-Maghrib, alongside the stability of the dirham against the euro. The combination of these domestic drivers should allow Morocco to weather the global economic slowdown.
On the external front, Morocco’s macroeconomic indicators are likely to improve. The current account deficit is projected to shrink, driven by a decline in energy and food prices, as well as the rebound in agricultural output.
The tourism sector, with its rapid growth, will help offset weaker export performance, particularly with the expected influx of visitors during the Africa Cup of Nations in late 2025.
Public finances are expected to face a slight deterioration, due to slower-than-expected revenue growth and increased expenditures related to debt servicing and major infrastructure projects.
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