A recent report published by Crisis Group Organization explained that “through mutual self-restraint and with U.S. help, Algeria and Morocco have managed to avoid a military clash,” emphasizing that France and Spain’s support for Morocco’s claim over Western Sahara has isolated Algeria.”
Published on Friday, the report said that “Spain and France tried to stay on good terms with both countries but eventually aligned themselves with Morocco, expressing support for its preferred solution to the Western Sahara conflict. In both cases, the shift alienated Algeria.”
Titled “Managing Tensions Between Algeria and Morocco,” the report emphasized that the risk of a “military clash between the two nations is not past,” driven by the Polisario Front’s calls for more aggressive actions against Morocco, the arms race between Algiers and Rabat, and uncertainties tied to Trump’s rise and shifting U.S. policies in the region.
The source further noted that “European nations should urge arms suppliers to both countries to help reduce the risk of armed conflict and take steps to curb online hate speech on social media.” It added that “these measures could encourage the two nations to explore paths toward rebuilding their relations.”
It pointed out that “Morocco is pressing its claim to sovereignty with increasing success, while Algeria continues to back the Polisario Front.” It also noted that Morocco has enhanced its regional influence, particularly through pressure on Western Sahara, and expanded its international relations.”
Crisis Group also said that King Mohammed VI’s visit to capitals throughout sub-Saharan Africa has strengthened Morocco’s position on the continent, “culminating in Rabat’s return to the African Union.”
It also pointed out that “since then, the kingdom has adopted a tougher stance on the Sahara issue with countries that support the Polisario Front.”
In this regard, the report highlighted “Morocco’s success in gaining recognition of its sovereignty over its territories, particularly through the opening of consulates by several countries in Laayoune and Dakhla.” It also pointed out that “the major diplomatic win was the U.S. recognition in 2020.”
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