Morocco’s statistics office (HCP) revealed that the inflation rate for the year 2023 is estimated to have reached +6.1%, following a +6.6% surge in 2022. The HCP attributes this development to a decline in imported inflationary pressures and ongoing tensions in the prices of local food products.
The report highlights the impact of rising production costs, particularly in irrigation, fertilizers, and livestock feed, on staples like fresh products, meats, and olive oil. This economic analysis is part of the HCP’s quarterly review for the fourth quarter of 2023, providing insights into the economic landscape and projections for the first quarter of 2024.
Underlying inflation, excluding government-regulated prices and volatile products, saw a modest increase from +5.8% in 2022 to +5.9% in 2023. This is attributed to a more sustained rise in service prices, indicating a complex economic scenario.
The fourth quarter of 2023 saw a continuation of the trend with a decrease in inflation rates, marking the third consecutive quarter of deceleration. The annual Consumer Price Index progression slowed to +3.9%, down from +4.9% in the third quarter and +6.8% in the second quarter.
This limited decline is linked to a moderated increase in food prices at +8.1% annually, following a peak of +10.7% in the third quarter. Non-food prices remained stable, showing a +1% annual increase.
The report notes that the easing of price increases affected all components except energy, which exhibited a less pronounced decrease than the previous quarter (-1.5% after -5.1%). The base effect, influenced by high petroleum prices in 2022, was partially offset by increased fuel prices in October.
Despite a general disinflationary trend, inflation struggled to return to pre-2022 levels. Prices remained higher than those before the conflict in Ukraine, particularly for food products, which sustained elevated price levels.
In particular, fresh product prices experienced the highest increase in the fourth quarter, soaring by +17.3% over the year. The chronic rainfall deficits over the past two years and exceptional heat were identified as contributing factors, negatively impacting crop yields and tightening the supply of agricultural products in the local market.
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