Morocco's production of cereals in 2022 drop by 69% in current agricultural season

Morocco’s production of cereals in 2022 slumped by 69%, far below forecasts made by the government, that is now challenged to meet national demand in a context marked by drought and stalled imports of wheat from Ukraine.

Soft wheat, durum wheat, and barley have dropped by 69% to an estimated 32 million kantars, in the 2022 agricultural season, announced the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries, Rural Development.

The ministry said that grain production by varieties is expected to reach 17.6 million quintals of soft wheat, 7.5 million quintals of hard wheat, and 6.9 million quintals of barley, noting that more than 60% of the production comes from regions Favorable destinations in Fez – Meknes, and Rabat – Sale – Kenitra.

Cereals in the irrigated areas only contributed about 20% of the total production, due to limited irrigated areas.

The 2022/2021 season recorded 188 mm of rainfall until the end of April 2022, a 42% decrease compared to the average of the past thirty years (327 mm), and 35% compared to the previous season (289 mm) in the same year.

Morocco is particularly vulnerable to shocks resulting from the war because of its dependence on food imports.

In 2020, Morocco imported about $6.5 billion worth of agricultural products while its exports averaged $4.2 billion, the publication points out.

Although the Kingdom’s food imports are mainly cereals, an essential to Moroccan’s daily diet, the country has nevertheless resorted to diversifying its suppliers to control its dependence.

As of this day, the publication reports that 32% of wheat imports come from Ukraine, while France supplies 33% of domestic needs, Russia exports a 17% portion, followed by the United States (14%), and other countries complete the remaining 4%.

Vulnerable households in Morocco spend about 40% to 50% of their income on soft wheat and other essential consumer items, with government subsidy policies playing a key role in protecting household purchasing power in the face of soaring prices. However, it remains insufficient to ensure food security for the entire population.

According to the report, the subsidies, although effective in ensuring the supply of the national market, end up being very costly and weigh heavily on the state budget.

Assuming that the increase in the prices of soft wheat, sugar and gas is 52%, 17% and 58% respectively, the price subsidies for these products amounted to 1.6% of GDP in 2021.

Considering the meteoric rise of prices and fuel on the international markets this year, total subsidies could reach more than 3.7% of GDP in 2022.