Late-summer heatwaves could strip moisture from Morocco’s soils and drain water reserves ahead of the 2026-27 agricultural season, putting autumn planting under pressure if rains arrive late.
Reservoirs held about 11.4 billion cubic meters in early September, but stocks had already fallen by about 1.5 billion cubic meters since mid-May as irrigation, drinking water use and evaporation drained supplies.
Drier soils and lower reserves could leave rainfed farmers facing delayed planting and greater pressure on limited irrigation water.
Heat is reducing the moisture available before planting
Higher temperatures cause water to evaporate faster from reservoirs and increase crop water requirements. They can also remove moisture from the upper layers of soil before autumn rainfall arrives.
That creates a problem for Morocco’s rainfed cereal farmers, who depend on autumn and winter rainfall to establish wheat and barley rather than having enough irrigation to replace missing rain.
Dry soil can delay sowing because planting seed before sufficient moisture arrives can result in poor germination and weak early growth.
Morocco experienced a similar delay during the previous agricultural season. Winter cereal planting was pushed back in some areas until late December because rainfall arrived late.
December rains eventually improved soil conditions and allowed crops to develop.
A late start to the 2026-27 rainy season after a hot September could create the same problem again.
The amount of water available to farmers also varies sharply between regions. In early September, reservoirs in the Moulouya basin were about 56% full, while the Guir-Ziz-Ghris basin was below 40%. The Tensift basin was at about 80%.
Dry conditions hit rainfed farmers hardest
Irrigated farmers can respond to dry conditions by increasing water applications, but that puts additional pressure on reservoirs and groundwater. Rainfed farmers have far fewer options if rainfall does not arrive when fields need it.
Morocco’s 2025-26 agricultural recovery lifted expectations for perennial crops, with olive production estimated at about 2 million tonnes, up 111% from the previous season, and citrus production forecast at 1.9 million tonnes, up 25%.
Olive trees, citrus orchards and other perennial crops continue losing water through September heat and require irrigation in areas where rainfall is insufficient.
Pasture conditions risk deteriorating if hot, dry weather continues into autumn, increasing pressure on livestock farmers who depend on natural grazing.
September heat will not by itself determine Morocco’s next harvest. Autumn rainfall will determine how much of the moisture lost during the late summer is replaced before sowing.
If rain arrives on schedule, farmers can replenish soil moisture and begin planting normally. If heat persists and rainfall is delayed, farmers could face drier fields, later sowing and greater demand for irrigation at the start of the new season.
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