The current El Niño event is expected to strengthen further before reaching its peak in December, potentially becoming one of the strongest such events recorded since at least 1950, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said Thursday.
The U.N. weather agency warned that the strengthening phenomenon is likely to bring above-average temperatures across large parts of the world and alter rainfall patterns, increasing the risk of droughts and floods in different regions.
“El Niño is firmly established and strengthening rapidly,” WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said, adding that forecasts indicate a near-100% likelihood that the event will persist through February 2027.
Sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are forecast to reach record levels during October, November and December, according to the WMO’s latest Global Seasonal Climate Update.
The seasonal average sea-surface temperature anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region is expected to reach about 3.7°C above normal during the October-December period, peaking around December. The WMO said this would exceed the previous record of 2.6°C recorded between November 2015 and January 2016.
The forecast is based on a consensus among 13 national and international meteorological centers, according to the WMO.
El Niño occurs when sea-surface temperatures rise in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, triggering changes in atmospheric circulation, winds and rainfall patterns around the world. The phenomenon typically occurs every two to seven years and can last between nine and 12 months.
The WMO said the current event is expected to affect weather patterns, economies, ecosystems and communities worldwide.
Saulo stressed that El Niño does not create additional heat in the climate system, but instead releases heat that has been stored in the ocean.
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