Morocco's population projected to reach 43.3 million by 2060 as ageing accelerates

Morocco’s population is projected to reach 43.3 million by 2060, a 17.8% increase from 36.8 million in 2024, according to new demographic projections released by the country’s High Commission for Planning (HCP).

While the population is expected to continue growing over the coming decades, the pace of growth will slow sharply. The HCP projects the annual population growth rate will decline from 0.67% in 2024 to just 0.08% by 2060, reflecting the country’s ongoing demographic transition.

The projections, based on data from the 2024 General Population and Housing Census, also forecast continued urbanization. Morocco’s urban population is expected to rise from 23.1 million in 2024 to nearly 32.5 million by 2060, accounting for about three-quarters of the total population. Meanwhile, the rural population is projected to fall from 13.7 million to 10.8 million.

The report highlights population ageing as one of Morocco’s most significant long-term demographic shifts. The number of people aged 60 and older is expected to more than double, increasing from approximately 5 million in 2024 to 10.9 million by 2060. Older adults would represent about one-quarter of the population by then, compared with 13.6% today.

At the same time, declining fertility rates are expected to reduce the number of preschool- and school-age children, easing pressure on the education system. The HCP said this demographic shift could allow policymakers to prioritize improving educational quality and human capital rather than expanding school capacity.

Morocco’s working-age population is projected to grow more gradually, rising from 22.1 million in 2024 to nearly 25 million by 2060. However, growth will vary across age groups as the country’s demographic structure continues to evolve.

The HCP said the projections were developed using the demographic components method, incorporating assumptions on fertility, mortality and migration. The forecasts are intended to support long-term planning in sectors including education, healthcare, employment, social protection and urban development.