HCP: Morocco’s population is growing older and families are getting smaller

Morocco is entering a new phase of demographic transition marked by falling fertility, smaller households, later marriage, rising rates of singlehood and a rapidly aging population, according to updated projections from the High Commission for Planning, or HCP.

The changes, based on data from Morocco’s 2024 General Population and Housing Census, are expected to reshape the country’s demographic structure through 2060, with implications for housing, health care, employment and social protection.

The share of Moroccans ages 60 and older rose from 9.4% of the population in 2014 to 13.8% in 2024. At the same time, the average number of children per woman fell to 1.97, below the replacement level of 2.1.

The HCP’s latest projections were developed at the national, urban and rural levels using the cohort-component method. They incorporate recent data on fertility, mortality and internal and international migration.

Nearly 5 million people are now 60 or older

Population aging is among the most visible changes.

Morocco had nearly 5 million people ages 60 and older in 2024, up from 3.2 million a decade earlier. Their number grew by an average of 4.6% annually, more than five times the average annual growth rate of the overall population, which stood at 0.85%.

The share of children under 15 fell from 28.2% in 2014 to 26.5% in 2024. The proportion of people ages 15 to 59 also declined, from 62.4% to 59.7%.

The shift has contributed to a higher demographic dependency ratio, which reached 67.5% in 2024 as declining child dependency was accompanied by rising dependency among older people.

The dependency rate among older people is particularly high among women and in rural areas.

Fertility falls below replacement level

Morocco’s fertility rate has declined sharply over the past four decades.

The average number of children per woman fell from 5.5 in 1982 to 3.3 in 1994, 2.47 in 2004 and 2.22 in 2014. By 2024, it had dropped to 1.97.

The national average masks significant regional differences.

Fertility stood at 1.77 children per woman in urban areas, compared with 2.37 in rural areas.

Four regions remained above the replacement level: Drâa-Tafilalet, at 2.35 children per woman; Dakhla-Oued Eddahab, at 2.25; Laayoune-Sakia El Hamra, at 2.17; and Marrakech-Safi, at 2.13.

The lowest fertility rate was recorded in Oriental, at 1.73, followed by Souss-Massa at 1.86, Casablanca-Settat at 1.90, Rabat-Sale-Kenitra at 1.91 and Beni Mellal-Khenifra at 1.95.

Meanwhile, preliminary findings from the 2025 National Family Survey show that contraceptive use has reached 72.8% nationally, up from 70.8% in 2018.

More households, fewer people per household

Morocco is also seeing a striking change in household structure: the number of households is increasing even as their average size declines.

The country had 9.27 million households in 2024, compared with 7.31 million in 2014.

Over the same period, the average household size fell from 4.6 people to 3.9.

The decline was recorded in both urban and rural areas. Average household size fell from 4.2 to 3.7 people in cities and from 5.3 to 4.4 in rural areas.

Preliminary findings from the 2025 National Family Survey point to further changes in family structure. Nuclear households now account for 73% of all households, compared with 60.8% three decades ago.

The share of people living alone has also increased, from 3.9% in 1995 to 5.9% in 2025.

The figures suggest that the traditional Moroccan family is changing rather than disappearing, with households becoming more numerous, smaller and increasingly centered on the nuclear family.

Moroccans are marrying later

The demographic transition is also reflected in marriage patterns.

The average age at first marriage reached 28.5 years in 2024. It was 29 years in urban areas and 27.5 years in rural areas.

The gender gap remains significant, with men marrying for the first time at an average age of 32.4 years, compared with 24.6 years for women.

Singlehood at age 50 has also increased. In 2024, 9.7% of men and 12.4% of women were unmarried at that age.

Over the previous decade, the rate increased by 2.4 percentage points among men and 4.1 points among women. The increase was particularly pronounced among rural women, whose rate rose by 5.2 points.

Fewer marriages and changing divorce patterns

Judicial data also reflect the changing family structure.

The number of registered marriages fell from 249,100 in 2023 to 239,300 in 2024, a 3.9% decline.

The number of divorce certificates also decreased, from 27,800 to 26,200, while court-ordered divorces fell from 67,600 to 65,500.

But the decline in the overall number of divorces masks a significant change in how marriages are being dissolved.

Nine out of 10 divorce certificates in 2024 were issued through mutual consent, compared with about one-third in 2008.

Among court-ordered divorces, cases involving irreconcilable differences accounted for 98.6% of judgments.

Overall, 91,700 divorces were recorded in 2024 when both divorce certificates and court-ordered divorces are included.

Demographic shift could reshape Morocco by 2060

The HCP data point to a country where population growth is slowing, older generations are becoming a larger share of the population and households are becoming smaller.

The trends are likely to have consequences well beyond population statistics, affecting demand for housing, health care, jobs and social protection as Morocco moves toward 2060.

The HCP’s updated projections will help assess how far these demographic changes could alter the balance between generations and the country’s future social and economic needs.