Morocco to age rapidly by 2040 as workforce growth slows, HCP warns

High Commission for Planning projections show Morocco’s population will keep growing but at a slower pace through 2040, with a sharp rise in older residents set to reshape the labor market, social services and urban development.

The recently released report on demographic change and socioeconomic conditions forecasts the population will reach about 40.5 million by 2040, up from 36.8 million in the latest census, 33.8 million in 2014 and 29.9 million in 2004.

The outlook is based on assumptions about fertility, mortality and migration and points to a decisive shift in the country’s age structure.

Life expectancy at birth could climb to 79.3 years by 2040 if recent gains in health and living standards continue. The latest census put life expectancy at 76.4 years, extending a decadeslong rise from about 47 years in 1960.

Fertility is expected to stabilize around 1.9 children per woman down from roughly 2.5 in 2014 and far below levels recorded in the 1960s.

As births decline, the share of children under 15 is projected to fall to 19.2% of the population, or about 7.8 million people, compared with 26.5% today.

At the same time, the proportion of people aged 60 and older is forecast to climb to 19.5% by 2040, nearly 7.9 million residents, growing at an average annual rate close to 3%. The aging trend has already accelerated over the past two decades.

Despite the shift, the working-age population (15–59) is expected to reach about 24.8 million by 2040, reflecting what demographers call a “demographic window” that could close around 2038.

Households are forecast to rise to 12.3 million by 2040, while average household size shrinks to 3.3 persons, extending a long-term trend toward smaller families.

Regional disparities may persist without corrective policies, the report says, noting that five regions already account for more than 70% of residents and most recent population growth.