Rare ‘super El Nino’ likely in 2026: What will it mean for Morocco weather?

After a winter that allowed Morocco to declare its long drought over, forecasters are warning that a likely El Niño in 2026 could disrupt the Atlantic rainfall patterns the country depends on, reviving risks for agriculture and water security.

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center puts the probability of El Niño emerging between June and August 2026 at 62 percent. “Even though the evidence is still early, this could be a very significant event in 2026 and lingering into 2027,” said Daniel Swain, climate scientist at the University of California, told NPR.

Research shows that this is relevant for Morocco because when Pacific trade winds weaken and warm water surges eastward, a chain of atmospheric waves propagates toward the North Atlantic, generating a pressure system off northwest Africa that blocks the Atlantic storm systems that deliver Morocco’s winter rains.

Every major drought period in Morocco’s recent history has coincided with at least one strong El Niño event, including 1991-92, 1994-95, 1997, 1998, 2002, and 2014-2016. During El Niño years, Moroccan wheat yields fall by 35 to 45 percent.

Climate scientist François Gemenne of Liège University says the pattern will repeat,m as the Mediterranean moves from a stable climate system to an unstable one, where droughts and extreme rainfall are not opposites but part of the same shift.

Researchers have found that since 2000, Pacific climate signals have become more synchronized with Atlantic variability, amplifying their combined effect on Morocco’s rainfall. 

The government is expanding its desalination network to 17 plants operating now, with nine more planned by 2030. Fanack Water But desalination is costly and out of reach for most small-scale farmers.

Morocco now operates 17 desalination plants and plans nine more by 2030 as it tries to reduce dependence on erratic rainfall and protect urban supply.