A near-total disruption of commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could pose uneven risks to European economies, according to a new study, with Italy, Belgium, and the United Kingdom facing the greatest exposure.
The research, conducted by the Supply Chain Information Institute, the Complexity Science Center, and Delft University of Technology, examined the potential economic fallout from a prolonged closure of the key shipping corridor.
Stefan Thurner, one of the study’s authors, said the economic impact depends heavily on the duration of any shutdown. “If the closure lasts longer than four weeks, disruptions could intensify across global supply chains,” he said.
According to the report, Italy is the most exposed, importing about $9.8 billion in goods annually from affected Gulf countries, including $4.4 billion in liquefied natural gas from Qatar and $2.3 billion in propane.
Belgium is also highly vulnerable, importing $5.8 billion in Qatari liquefied natural gas annually, in addition to a substantial share of its diamond trade from United Arab Emirates routed through Antwerp.
The study highlighted that the United Kingdom imports roughly $12.9 billion in goods from the region each year, including $9.5 billion in gas products from Qatar.
The authors warned that while the overall economic risks vary across Europe, the potential for disruption underscores the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz to energy and trade security.
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