European Union wheat exporters are struggling to shift a large surplus as Argentina’s record harvest pushes cheaper grain into import tenders, intensifying competition in Morocco, now described by traders and analysts as the EU’s largest market.
Consultancy Expana cut its forecast for EU soft wheat exports in 2025 to 2026 by 4 percent to 28.8 million tonnes, below market expectations that had clustered around 30 million tonnes, as pressure builds on higher priced western European origins.
Donatas Jankauskas, a grain analyst at CM Navigator, said offers from the Black Sea region and Argentina are setting the tone for many tenders, a dynamic that has tightened the margin for EU sellers who cannot clear stocks without deeper discounts.
European concern sharpened after wheat tenders last week in Algeria and Saudi Arabia, where traders expect the bulk of supply to come from Argentina and Black Sea exporters, reinforcing a shift that narrows the EU’s export routes just as it tries to lean harder on Morocco.
Reuters reporting cited by UkrAgroConsult said Argentine deliveries into Morocco are already weighing on EU prospects, while Algeria has increasingly focused on Black Sea origins, leaving European suppliers more exposed to a single outlet that is itself becoming more price sensitive.
That dependence comes with a deadline, because Morocco’s domestic harvest starts in May, after which import demand typically fades, a German trader said, warning that western Europe has only a short window to sell new crop to its key customer while fierce competition holds down prices.
France, the EU’s biggest wheat producer, is watching whether it can lift sales to Egypt if higher Black Sea shipping costs narrow the price gap, but traders said exports remain constrained by farmers in Germany and Poland who are reluctant to sell at prices close to five year lows, implying the market may need another leg down before major deals clear.
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