Data models continue to back Morocco as top favorite for AFCON 2025

As the Africa Cup of Nations 2025 enters the knockout stage, data driven prediction platforms have updated their forecasts for the tournament winner, and Morocco remains the leading favorite despite an uneven start to the competition.

Statistical models from Opta and Football Meets Data, which rely on thousands of simulations combining team performance, current form, and bracket difficulty, both place the host nation at the top of their projections. Morocco’s convincing 3–0 win over Zambia in the final group stage match appears to have significantly strengthened its standing in the models.

According to Opta’s simulations, Morocco wins the tournament in roughly 23 percent of all scenarios. That places the Atlas Lions ahead of a closely packed group including Algeria, Senegal, and Egypt, each hovering just above 13 percent. Nigeria follows with about a 10 percent chance, while Ivory Coast and Cameroon rank further down the list.

Football Meets Data offers an even stronger endorsement of Morocco’s chances. In its projections, the host nation reaches nearly a 40 percent probability of lifting the trophy, double that of Senegal at around 20 percent. Algeria comes next but at a clear distance, while Nigeria, Egypt, and Ivory Coast fall into a narrow range between 4 and 5 percent.

Despite differences in percentages, both platforms agree on one key point: teams considered outsiders, such as Tanzania, Mozambique, Sudan, and Benin, have very slim chances of going all the way, even after securing spots in the round of 16.

The knockout matches are scheduled from January 3 to January 6, with the final set for January 18. Whether Morocco’s statistical edge translates into silverware remains uncertain. As past editions have shown, AFCON often defies logic and predictions, leaving room for surprises once the games are decided on the field rather than by algorithms.