Allianz Trade says Morocco poised to gain ground as global trade rewires

Global trade is entering a phase of structural realignment shaped by geopolitics, protectionist policies and supply chain fragmentation, with Morocco identified among 25 economies positioned to benefit from the redirection of flows, according to Allianz Trade’s 2025 outlook.

The insurer said trade routes are increasingly reorganizing around clusters of politically or economically aligned partners, a trend known as “friendshoring,” as governments and companies seek to reduce exposure to geopolitical risk. 

The report notes that a rise of 10 percent in “geopolitical distance” between two trading partners can cut bilateral trade by about 2 percent.

The shift is already visible in the rebalancing of major corridors. The United States is reducing its dependence on China, the European Union is scaling back trade with Russia, and China is deepening ties with emerging economies across Asia, Africa and Latin America. 

Against that backdrop, global trade growth is expected to reach about 2 percent in 2025, driven mainly by re routed US imports, inventory frontloading ahead of tariff increases and accelerated diversification. Allianz Trade then projects a slowdown to 0.6 percent in 2026 before a modest recovery to 1.8 percent in 2027.

Morocco ranks 21st in Allianz Trade’s list of economies poised to strengthen their role as trade hubs. 

The report credits the country’s position to its logistics performance and international connectivity, placing Morocco 16th worldwide for connectivity and 18th for trade potential.

 The TelMed port complex in Tangier is cited as a key asset anchoring Morocco’s role as a bridge between Europe, Africa and Atlantic trade lanes.

Beyond Morocco, the report highlights the emergence of the United Arab Emirates, Vietnam and Malaysia as logistics platforms, Saudi Arabia’s progress through non oil exports, and gains by Türkiye, Hungary and Poland along Eurasian supply chains.

Allianz Trade also warned that infrastructure gaps could constrain growth, estimating a global shortfall exceeding 10 trillion dollars by 2035, with more than 7 trillion in emerging markets. 

International lenders, Gulf sovereign funds and platforms such as Africa50 are expanding co investment models, with nearly 90 percent of new infrastructure funds launched since 2024 incorporating climate or ESG standards.

“By 2030, financing for trade corridors will be integrated, green and digital, linking ports, energy, data and transport,” the report said, underscoring a transition toward hybrid investment models as trade systems are rebuilt.