Morocco is set to endure an extended period of extreme heat lasting until at least August 10, according to updated climate data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).
The country’s meteorological authority, the General Directorate of Meteorology, said temperatures are expected to begin rising gradually starting Sunday and will remain high into the following week.
This forecast falls within the seasonal phenomenon known locally as “Ssmayem,” a period typically marked by intense heat during late July and early August.
The data, analyzed by Hespress AR from ECMWF, shows that Morocco remains under the influence of a hot air mass rising from the Sahara, which is preventing the arrival of cooler air masses.
Temperatures are projected to spike during the initial phase of the Ssmayem period. The meteorological directorate confirmed that hot to relatively hot conditions will persist from Tuesday through Thursday across much of the country, particularly in the southeast, the interior of the southern provinces, and the plains west of the High Atlas Mountains.
In these areas, high temperatures are expected to range between 40 and 47 degrees Celsius, especially in Tadla, Rhamna, the southeast, and the interior of the southern provinces.
Milder conditions will prevail in mountainous and coastal areas, with highs between 25 and 30 degrees Celsius. The Atlantic plains and Mediterranean coasts will see temperatures from 30 to 35 degrees, while other regions will record highs between 34 and 39 degrees.
According to the meteorological authority, which operates under the Ministry of Equipment and Water, this heatwave is driven by the expansion of the Saharan high-pressure system over Moroccan territory. This atmospheric pattern intensifies hot and dry air masses across the region.
Nighttime and early morning fog and low clouds are also expected along the coasts, particularly between Sidi Ifni and Tarfaya, and across the Atlantic plains.
Localized fog may appear along the Mediterranean coast, temporarily reducing visibility. Cloud cover may also develop over the Atlas Mountains, the eastern region, and the southeast, with a chance of cumulonimbus cloud formation over the mountains in the afternoon.
Starting Friday, hot conditions are forecast to continue across the interior plains, southeastern Morocco, the eastern region, and the interior of the southern provinces. Temperatures could exceed 45 degrees Celsius in areas such as the southeast, Tadla, Rhamna, Al Haouz, and Saïss. The persistence of the heat is attributed to the ongoing influence of the Saharan high-pressure ridge.
Wind conditions will vary, with forecasts predicting moderate to occasionally strong gusts, particularly in Tangier, the central coasts, the Atlas Mountains, the southeast, and the southern regions. These winds may stir up dust or sand in exposed areas.
Mohamed Said Karrouk, a university professor and climate systems expert, told Hespress AR that European climate models show the heatwave persisting across Morocco through the end of July, with regional variation.
He added that while parts of North Africa were initially projected to be affected by a cool air mass that could lead to storms, the strength of Saharan heat ultimately blocked that cooling trend.
Karrouk noted that the Azores high-pressure system continues to suppress the influx of refreshing westerly currents, further reinforcing the current heat conditions.
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