Morocco is expected to experience steady economic growth over the next two years, with real GDP forecasted to rise by 4.8% in 2025 and 5.5% in 2026, signaling a robust recovery following the economic deceleration of 2024, according to BMI-Fitch Solutions.
This projection surpasses the Moroccan government’s own estimate of 3.9% growth for 2025, highlighting a more optimistic outlook grounded in the resurgence of key economic drivers. Chief among these is household consumption, which is anticipated to rebound significantly, supported by wage increases and continued remittance inflows from Moroccans living abroad.
Household spending is projected to grow by 4.1% in 2025, up from 3.2% in 2024, thus becoming a substantial contributor to overall economic expansion.
Public investment is also poised to play a pivotal role, with government spending set to rise under an expansionary fiscal policy framework, contributing approximately 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth.
Fixed investment is expected to increase by 7.1%, driven by a more accommodative monetary stance adopted by Bank Al-Maghrib, which recently lowered its key interest rate to 2.25% and may reduce it further to 2% by the end of 2025. This monetary easing is likely to sustain favorable borrowing conditions for businesses, thereby fostering private sector investment.
Morocco’s growing appeal as a destination for foreign direct investment—particularly in the automotive, aerospace, and renewable energy sectors—was evident in the 55.4% increase in FDI in 2024, a trend expected to persist, especially with infrastructure developments for the FIFA World Cup 2030.
Despite these favorable indicators, the economy remains vulnerable to agricultural volatility due to persistent drought risks and the potential slowdown of key European trading partners, which may dampen demand for Moroccan exports such as textiles and automotive components.
The medium-term outlook remains positive, supported by economic diversification, macroeconomic stability, and strategic infrastructure projects. While the IMF and World Bank project a more conservative growth rate of 3.9% in 2025, largely contingent on improved agricultural output, the African Development Bank estimates an average GDP growth of 3.8% over 2025–2026, driven by tourism recovery, industrial production, export growth, and FDI linked to World Cup preparations.
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