Morocco fuel prices: New inflation wave or false alarm?

Fuel prices are rising in Morocco, and with them, familiar anxieties about inflation, but economists tracking the data say the kingdom is not, at least for now, heading toward a repeat of the painful price surges that followed the Russia-Ukraine war.

Official figures through February 2026 show inflation remaining relatively subdued. The consumer price index rose just 0.3 percent in January and 0.5 percent in February on a monthly basis, while core inflation stayed limited and edged down on an annual comparison.

After peaking at 6.6 percent in 2022 and 6.1 percent in 2023, inflation fell below 0.8 percent in 2025, a significant cushion heading into the current period of uncertainty.

“The rise in fuel prices does not necessarily mean Morocco is entering a new inflationary wave,” economist Idriss El Figuigui told Hespress. “But it should be treated as a warning signal that needs to be taken seriously.”

When energy prices last spiked this sharply, in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, supply chains were fracturing globally, and the cost of raw materials, timber, aluminium, steel, cement, was climbing in tandem with oil.

“There is no rise in raw material prices right now,” said economist Mohamed Jadri.

“And this is not a drought year in Morocco, that alone guarantees food supply conditions that make a return to 5 or 6 percent inflation unlikely.” He puts the ceiling at around 2 percent.

Energy prices remain below the $100-per-barrel threshold widely seen as a critical stress point. Jadri also expects the current geopolitical tensions driving prices higher to ease before the end of 2026, with the second half of the year likely bringing more stability.

The concern is what happens if fuel costs stay elevated for longer. El Figuigui points to a gradual transmission risk, higher energy prices feeding first into transport and distribution costs, and eventually into the broader price of goods and services.

“That process could bring inflationary pressures back slowly over the coming months,” he said, “if these increases are not contained.”