Trump's return could disrupt agreements between Spain and Morocco, report says

The return of Donald Trump to the White House is casting a shadow over two crucial agreements for Spain and Morocco: the Gibraltar treaty and the normalization of relations with Morocco, according to a report from the Real Instituto Elcano, titled “Spain in the World in 2025: Perspectives and Challenges.”

Spanish media had previously warned that Trump’s return to the White House could backfire for Spain, especially in its relations with Morocco. The concern was that supporting Morocco might end up costing Spain dearly. 

With Trump back in power on January 20, it’s expected that the situation in the Maghreb could become more complicated. Morocco, having regained a strong ally, might become bolder in its foreign policies. 

One of the key issues could be the pressure on Spain to support Morocco’s claim over Moroccan Sahara, which has been a long-standing point of contention. 

The reports say that Trump’s return could lead to Morocco pushing Spain harder on this issue, as he’s likely to revive his support for the country’s autonomy plan for Moroccan Sahara. 

In fact, Trump’s tweet back in 2020, which called Morocco’s 2007 plan for autonomy the “only basis for a fair and lasting solution,” was a big influence on Spain’s decision in March 2022 to back Morocco’s proposal as the most viable solution.

On a different note, the Trump administration could complicate Spain’s diplomatic efforts in Europe and beyond. 

The report highlights concerns that Trump’s hostile stance toward the European Union (EU) and his criticism of Spain—due to its limited military spending and diplomatic stance on issues like Palestine and Cuba—could weaken Spain’s position in Brussels. 

This would affect Spain’s ability to manage its delicate relationship with Morocco as well as finalize the long-awaited treaty with the UK regarding Gibraltar post-Brexit.

The document also points out the internal political instability in Spain, where the lack of a new budget and the deep divide between major political parties, the PP and PSOE, could undermine the country’s international standing and diplomatic influence. 

In such a scenario, Trump’s policies could further isolate Spain, making it harder to negotiate key issues, particularly those involving Morocco and Gibraltar.