Study sheds light on potential border military confrontation between Algeria, Morocco

A new study from the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies revealed a growing arms race in the Maghreb, amid the defense rivalry between Morocco and Algeria.

The paper argued that the recent escalation in arms procurement by both countries has reached levels that make the Maghreb one of the most heavily armed regions in the world, noting that 4 Maghreb countries (Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, and Libya) accounted for approximately 50% of Africa’s military spending in 2021.

In exploring the dynamics, developments, and implications of the Moroccan-Algerian arms race, the study observed that the buildup of arms is not necessarily tied to political tensions between the two countries, contrary to popular belief. However, it did not rule out the possibility of a military confrontation—likely limited to border clashes—due to a mix of structural and emerging factors.

The article stressed the urgent need for the Maghreb region to rethink its security approaches to avoid an unwanted war. This calls for addressing the interplay between deep-rooted structural factors and emerging dynamics to prevent an armed conflict between the two regional powers.

It also pointed out that while Algeria and Morocco’s arms race is driven by rivalry for dominance, threat perceptions, and regional security concerns, the barriers that have so far kept them from direct conflict are weakening—heightening the risk of a confrontation between the two nations.

The same source highlighted that Algeria’s defense spending was modest during the 1960s and 1970s, causing the country to fall behind in arms development for 3 decades. However, with the turn of the 21st century, Algeria adopted a sustained and high-spending armament policy, made possible by its oil and gas revenues.

It also emphasized that Algeria’s military buildup is expected to continue, referencing a statement by the Algerian president to support this claim.

The study noted that the war in Ukraine has become a key international factor influencing Algeria’s arms procurement, given its heavy reliance on Russia. This conflict presents Algeria with a strategic dilemma: it is deeply tied to Russia as its primary arms supplier but cannot ignore Western pressure.

Strengthening military cooperation with Russia risks Western sanctions, added the same source, especially if the war in Ukraine drags on, while stepping away from Russia could undermine its military capabilities.

It also highlighted a decline in the flow of Russian weapons to Algeria, with no alternative sources to fill the gap.

The study stressed that “it’s unlikely Algeria will receive Western guarantees for advanced weaponry, noting that Russia’s struggle to end the war is forcing it to prioritize its own military needs, which will delay the delivery of weapons previously agreed upon for Algeria.”

As for Morocco, the source explained that “since the 1960s, the kingdom has been working to modernize and restructure its armed forces with support from the Pentagon.”

It also noted that “in the early 2000s, the United States decided to strengthen bilateral security ties, assess Morocco’s military needs, and enhance military cooperation, including increasing the frequency of joint exercises.”

The study highlighted that “in recent years, Morocco has focused on acquiring advanced, high-tech weapons in collaboration with Washington, with which it signed a strategic agreement lasting until 2030.”

It added that “Morocco is increasingly diversifying its sources of arms, strengthening its land, naval, and air forces, as well as its electronic warfare capabilities.”

The same source also noted that “Morocco’s military buildup has progressed significantly since normalizing relations with Israel and signing two military agreements, aiming to develop a local defense industry and gradually boost its independence in arms production.”

In terms of the balance of power, the study noted that “Morocco seeks to counterbalance Algeria by matching its military buildup (internal balance) and strengthening its external alliances, especially with the United States and Israel (external balance).”

On the other hand, Algeria maintains its focus on internal balance and rejects external alliances, prioritizing its security independence and avoiding reliance on foreign support.