As the U.S. presidential election approaches, speculation is growing about how former President Donald Trump might address the Sahara conflict if he returns to the White House.
Trump, during his presidency, made a notable shift in U.S. policy by recognizing Morocco’s sovereignty over the Sahara in December 2020. This move set off significant regional and international diplomatic changes.
Now, observers are questioning whether a potential Trump administration would accelerate efforts to resolve the long-standing Sahara conflict and whether it would maintain or alter its current approach.
Political and security expert Mohamed Chakir told Hespress Ar that Trump “played a pivotal role in the U.S. recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the Sahara,” integrating this stance into U.S. strategy in North Africa. Chakir noted that Trump linked the recognition to the normalization of Moroccan-Israeli relations.
Chakir suggested that Trump’s return to office “could facilitate resolution of the conflict by applying additional pressure on Algeria to engage in negotiations.” He added that Trump might rely on a team of advisors keen on resolving the issue and would likely enhance Morocco’s strategic role in connecting Europe to the Sahel, especially after France’s military withdrawal from the region.
Political researcher Bousalham Issat indicated that the U.S. position on Moroccan sovereignty and support for the autonomy plan “reflects the administration’s stance and is unlikely to change with new leadership, despite the hopes of Morocco’s opponents.”
Issat highlighted that Trump’s rhetoric underscores his awareness of the threats posed by Iranian influence and its potential to destabilize regions in Africa and the Mediterranean.
He suggested that a future Trump administration would likely continue efforts to advance the political process and build on his previous initiatives.
Issat also noted that Trump’s policy, combined with Morocco’s strategic diplomatic framework, has led major nations to reassess their positions on Sahara sovereignty. He pointed out that France, in particular, appears to anticipate a Trump victory, which would mean continued U.S. support for Morocco and possibly the establishment of a U.S. consulate in Dakhla. This move could further accelerate efforts to resolve the Sahara conflict.
With President Joe Biden’s recent decision to exit the presidential race, the future of U.S. policy on this issue remains uncertain, but Trump’s potential return to office could significantly impact the diplomatic landscape.
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