In the second quarter of 2024, the Moroccan economy showed signs of strengthened dynamism, with GDP growth of 2.9% year-on-year, compared with 2.5% in the previous quarter.
This acceleration was largely driven by robust domestic demand, boosted by favorable calendar effects on consumer spending.
The manufacturing and accommodation services sectors should continue to support this positive trend, forecasting economic growth of 3.2% for the third quarter of 2024.
The extractive industries recorded impressive growth of 15.6%, driven by increased exports of non-metallic ores and renewed local demand for processed products.
At the same time, the construction sector maintained its momentum with growth of 3%, fuelled by dynamic public works and a significant increase in cement sales.
This momentum reflects the continued success of programs to support home purchases and the resumption of lending to property developers.
After a mixed start to the year, the manufacturing industries rebounded in the second quarter of 2024, with value-added growth of 3.5%, compared with 2.1% in the previous quarter.
Chemicals and construction-related industries were the main drivers of this recovery, while exports of metal and electronic products also boosted the sector’s renewed vigor.
In contrast, the automotive industry continued to face challenges linked to input shortages and stagnant demand in the European market.
The tertiary sectors benefited from a significant upturn in domestic demand. Wholesale trade recorded a marked improvement in sales, while business services grew by 3.9%, in line with the industrial recovery.
Similarly, the transport and accommodation sector saw its vigor increase, supported by domestic and foreign religious festivals such as Easter and Eid al-Fitr.
By contrast, the agricultural sector contracted by 4.9% due to the severe drought that affected major crops such as wheat and barley, reducing overall production despite increased resilience in poultry farming.
Domestic demand was a crucial driver of economic growth, making a positive contribution of 3.9 points, compared with zero in the same period the previous year.
Household consumption continued to grow, boosted by an improvement in partial purchasing power and an increase in public transfers.
Although inflation eased to 0.7% in the second quarter of 2024 from 6.8% the previous year, households had to dip into their savings to cope with increased spending during the Eid al-Fitr and Eid al-Adha holidays.
Despite an improvement in exports of goods such as automobiles, phosphates and aeronautics, the net contribution of foreign trade to economic growth remained negative in the second quarter of 2024. Imports rose by 11.8%, outstripping the 10.9% increase in exports, widening the trade deficit.
The Central Bank of Morocco (BAM) eased its monetary policy slightly, cutting its key rate to 2.75% in June 2024, in response to tame inflation and an optimistic economic outlook.
Financial markets reacted positively, with stock market indices continuing to rise and interest rates stabilizing.
The economic outlook for the third quarter of 2024 remains optimistic, underpinned by continued improvement in the global economy and a robust recovery in both advanced and emerging economies.
Projected growth of 3.2% should consolidate the growth momentum observed in the manufacturing and services sectors, while mitigating certain persistent challenges such as agricultural volatility and pressures on foreign trade.
Finally, the Moroccan economy is showing encouraging signs of recovery and resilience, despite persistent challenges.
With an accommodating monetary policy and sustained growth prospects, Morocco is well positioned to navigate through the global economic turbulence and capitalize on its domestic strengths.
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