A new report exploring North African weather conditions by Gro Intelligence, an AI-powered agricultural insights platform, indicated that the region is facing a record drought, potentially driving wheat imports to new highs.
Titled, “Record North African Drought to Drive Wheat Imports Higher,” the report predicted that North African countries, namely Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia, might face higher wheat imports in 2024/2025 due to the looming threat of a third consecutive year of drought. Increased wheat imports will enable them to “meet demand and bolster wheat stocks.”
As North African countries grapple with their largest wheat imports in seven years during the period of 2023/2024, a potential third year of drought threatens to push the region deeper into crisis.
Recent findings from Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture showcased that the region’s Drought Index has hit its highest value for this time of year since at least 2003.
The most recent rainy season, which typically runs from August through December, provided only scant relief, with precipitation falling 50% below average in Algeria, 55% below average in Morocco, and a staggering 63% below average in Tunisia.
Despite a seemingly robust currency in Morocco—as the Moroccan dirham has seen an unexpected rise of nearly 2% in the past year—the kingdom, a key wheat producer and importer in Africa, has faced various challenges in its agricultural sector.
Food prices within the country have already climbed 18% compared to 2020, when global food costs started to rise.
The current crop’s vegetative health readings are among the lowest in two decades, reflecting conditions that led to a significant 53% decline in harvest in 2022. As a result, wheat imports that year, according to the same report, witnessed a 45% increase.
Conditions in Algeria, on the other hand, have deteriorated further compared to last year’s already concerning state.
In that year, the country saw a 27% decrease in wheat production compared to the previous year, slightly increasing wheat imports as a result.
At present, soil moisture in key wheat-growing regions in Algeria has plummeted to its lowest level since at least 2010. As a consequence, wheat imports are expected to remain high in 2024/25.
As to Tunisia, vegetative health in wheat-growing areas has experienced some improvement since the beginning of January 2024 due to rainfall.
However, the Gro Drought Index remains near record highs, and soil moisture continues to decline.
The country’s wheat imports increased in 2023/24 due to lower production and the lowest wheat stocks in almost ten years.
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