Experts assess repercussions of Morocco's sixth consecutive drought year

As Morocco approaches its sixth consecutive year of drought, this week saw the release of startling information about the nation’s water resources from Minister of Equipment and Water Nizar Baraka. Experts affirm that this will harm the country’s economy, which heightened public fear.

In this context, Abdennabi Abo El Arab, an economic expert, said, “The climate situation in the Kingdom is very worrying, and today it has become clear that the state of drought and water stress has become a structural given,” stressing in a statement to Hespress that this situation will have “radical effects on the economic and social structure of the kingdom.”

According to the expert, over 40% of people in the Kingdom still live in rural areas. These people primarily work on small farms that are less than five hectares in size and rely on ancient irrigation methods as well as rain.

The spokesman stated that “the mullet agricultural sector in the Kingdom constitutes between 80 and 90% of the cultivated areas,” stressing that “five consecutive years of drought have a very serious impact on the economic and demographic structure.”

Around 270.000 jobs were lost in the rural areas in 2023, crop production fell by around 70%, and losses in livestock, poultry, and other industries were apparent and accounted for 50% of total losses. Inflation rates rose to extremely dangerous levels, placing Moroccan families, particularly those belonging to the vulnerable classes, in a precarious predicament.

The same expert warned that despite investments in the sector, such as water desalination projects, which have become a structural feature of the country’s public policies, the situation requires an urgent program in the rural world to save what can be saved.

He said, “In general, there was a decline in the growth rate for the current year by about 2.7%, and I estimate that it will not exceed two points, as it is expected that even next year will be weak in terms of precipitation”.

The agriculture sector, he warned, has an approximately two-point growth impact on the nation’s overall economic structure.

“We will live another year of drought that will be more difficult than the current year, especially with the rise in inflation and consumer prices,” he further stated.

Mohamed Jedri, an economist, said that the current state of water resources has a direct impact on growth, wealth, and job creation.

“Morocco is moving at two speeds: The first, up to 2030, requires adapting to the context of declining rainfall and growth rates dependent on the generosity of the sky. The second, after 2030, if the water strategy is implemented.”

He talked about the existence of a road map worth MAD 143 billion to connect the water basins between the north and the south, which requires the establishment of seawater desalination plants, wastewater treatment, and the construction of small and medium dams, highlighting that if the water problem is not solved, the growth numbers present in the new development model cannot be achieved. 

The agricultural added value directly affects growth rates, and inflation results from the limited supply of vegetables, fruits, meat, and eggs. Therefore, it is necessary to return to the crops that Moroccans consume.