Morocco’s economic growth is expected to reach 3.6% in 2024 and 3.3% in 2023, according to the High Commission for Planning (HCP) latest economic exploratory report.
The recently released HCP report gives an overview of 2023’s economic development and 2024’s prospects.
This growth in the national economy is achieved mostly by primary and tertiary activities, according to the 2024 Exploratory Economic Budget, in consideration of a 2.9% increase in taxes and duties on income net of subsidies.
Inflation should decrease to around 2.8% in 2023 and 1.8% in 2024 instead of 3.1% in 2022.
The trade deficit should be recorded at -21.8% in 2023 and -22.1% in 2024, compared to -23.2% in 2022.
The late improvement in weather conditions after a largely dry season should make up for the water deficit recorded at the start of the season and marginally increase the reservoirs of the major national dams.
Accordingly, agricultural (VA) will increase by 6.7% in 2023 following a significant decline of 12.9% in 2022.
The number of cattle is anticipated to decrease because of the successive years of drought, despite the improvement in plant cover and the anticipated high performance of fodder crops.
The tertiary sector should expand overall by 4.2% in 2023, positively impacting GDP growth of 2.3 points.
The dynamics of tertiary activities should favor non-agricultural sectors, although the slowdown in foreign demand and the ongoing high level of commodity prices should continue to have an impact.
As a result, the added value of non-agricultural activities will reach 2.9% in 2023 and 2024, compared to 3% in 2022.
The impact of the fall in international demand for phosphate fertilizers that started in mid-2022, especially from India and Brazil, should continue to negatively affect the activities of the chemical industries.
The construction sector should continue to slow down, with 0.4% growth projected for 2023 due to an increase in the price of land and construction.
Nevertheless, the increase in the amount of infrastructure public investments could help the public works branch partially offset the decline in the building industry, according to HCP.
HCP also forecasts that the restart of tourism activities, which are currently expanding significantly and utilizing air travel, should lead to a rise in the added value of market services of 4.2% in 2023.
The labor market will experience a sustained fall in activity rate of 0.8% in 2023 after a decrease of 2.2% in 2022, according to the HCP.
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