The El Niño climatic phenomenon, which occurs almost every 7 years, has just been declared as a probable event to expect this summer, pushing world temperatures higher than normal.
The U.S. Meteorological Agency initially predicted it, and a study by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has just confirmed its occurence this year. El Niño, the climatic phenomenon that pushes up temperatures in large parts of the Pacific, could appear much earlier than predicted.
According to estimates, El Niño will hit hard in 2024, but its effects could be felt as early as this summer, which is already shaping up to be one of the hottest on record, judging by the scorching temperatures experienced in June and early July.
According to the institution’s latest estimates, there is a 55% chance that El Niño will reappear this summer, and the WMO’s latest update states that there is a 90% chance that it will occur in the second half of 2023, although it hopes that its strength will be “moderate”.
The El Niño climatic event is one of the main causes of rising temperatures and more extreme weather events worldwide. It occurs in the Pacific over a wide strip between Indonesia and Peru, but its effects are felt all over the world.
The two main triggers are a deep reservoir of warm water in the western Pacific, formed by the zone’s normal climatic cycle and accentuated by the La Niña phenomenon. When westerly winds disrupt this climatic cycle in spring, this reserve of warm water rises to the surface, and on contact with the atmosphere, creates warming.
This year is already set to be warmer than 2022, and the fifth or sixth warmest on record. The effects of El Niño take months to be felt, and could mean that 2024 will break temperature records.
El Niño “will significantly increase the likelihood of record-breaking temperatures and more extreme heat in many parts of the world and in the ocean”, according to WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas.
He stresses that the appearance of El Niño in this current global context “is a sign” that governments around the world must mobilize to limit its impact on health, ecosystems and the economy, to save lives and secure livelihoods.
During this phenomenon, global temperature rises by around 0.2 degrees Celsius, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). This means it would far exceed the crucial global warming threshold of 1.5°C.
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