A succession crisis rocks Polisario's boat, as front bluffs 'escalation' against Morocco

The separatist Polisario front is undergoing a silent internal crisis, as its ranks diverge in vision for the front’s future.

Gathered under the slogan: “Intensify the armed struggle to expel the occupier and impose sovereignty,” Polisario kingpins found themselves disillusioned by Algeria, Spain and their “leader,” Brahim Ghali.

The Front unexpectedly extended its 16th congress for two days, after other prominent members announced their candidacy or intent to run for the Secretary General position, one Ghali has held since 2016.

The brother of the founder of the Polisario and “minister adviser to the presidency of the front,” Bashir Mustapha Sayed announced his candidacy on what was meant to be the congress’s last day, reports the pro-Polisario media ECSaharaui.

Ghali has been at the heart of contention within the Polisario according to Spanish media, after Oubi Bachir, the Polisario delegate to the European Union resigned back in December, citing “disagreements” with Ghali.

More notably, Ghali has been aggressively pushing for the resumption of armed conflict, per the congress slogan’s message, as he’s pushing the “people’s call for real, intense battles against the Moroccan army.”

In an interview with Spanish news site El Independiente, Ghali says that “for the last 10 or 12 years, there has been a demand from all the Saharawi people to get out of this situation, and  to seek all means to intensify the armed struggle against the Moroccan army and against the Moroccan regime.”

“There is enormous pressure to intensify battles,” says the war-hungry separatist, in an attempt to steer attention away from the Polisario’s leadership crisis.

‌Ghali 2023: troubling lack of consensus

The existence of internal disagreements on a new mandate of the outgoing “secretary general” was already evident in December.

Younger centrist figures within the front such as Oubi Bachir are reportedly seeking new leadership, as accusations of corruption, nepotism and mismanagement of aid remain rampant.

Several media institutions and human rights organizations have exposed the lavish lives Polisario officials lead, in stark contrast to the living conditions of the many refugees held at the Tindouf camps.

According to the Forum for the Support of the Autonomists of Tindouf (Forsatin), Ghali is now the center of a debate over his successor, provoking an internal conflict between the different factions.

Iberian media notes that the current struggle for power is taking place in a context of unease among the new generations growing up in the camps, fed up with the lack of internal renewal of the Polisario leadership.

The fundamental law of the organization establishes two requirements which prevent the promotion of a new batch of “leaders:” to be older than 40 years old, and to have military experience.

Spanish media sources close to the movement also justify the extension of the conclave by a desire to reform internal statutes of the separatist movement.

Precisely, the reform of the internal statutes is one of the reasons which would have led to the prolongation of the congress, according to sources close to the movement quoted in Spanish outlet Lavoz De Galcia.

‌Dwindling influence, sub-par military capacities

As Brahim Ghali’s galvanization strategy continues to lose momentum within the Polisario, separatists are also reaping its inefficiency, as Moroccan forces continue their military winning streak against Polisario attacks.

In a recent report, Maghreb Intelligence quotes an anonymous “commander of a Sahrawi unit,” saying that Algeria promised to help revitalize the front’s military capabilities, but has yet to deliver.

“Algiers promised us new weapons, drones and tactical support, but we have not seen anything coming except empty promises,” says this commander, adding that “there is now a great deal of unease in the Tindouf camps.”

But Spanish media says its sources within the conference assure the front is unanimously  “calling for the escalation of war with Morocco.”

In addition to disappointment at Algeria’s undelivered promises, the Polisario also strongly criticized Spanish  Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, for having “abandoned” the historical position of Spanish neutrality.

With its fading influence, internal conflicts and Morocco’s ever-growing diplomatic successes in this file, the Polisario’s only solution is branding military escalation, a final attempt at sowing a semblance of change to generations of “refugees” disillusioned with the status-quo.