The accounts of the state treasurer in the first quarter of the year 2021 show achievement rates in line with the forecasts of the 2021 appropriation bill, according to Attijari Global Research (AGR).
These accounts remain marked by the effort to reduce the tax burden on some sectors in difficulty and the start of the program to generalize social protection to 22 million beneficiaries, said the AGR, which has just published its recent “Budget Focus”.
The comfortable public finances situation in Q1-21 helped contain the Treasury’s supply of treasury bonds in the domestic market. Despite the almost exclusive use of domestic financing and the absence of new international outflows, bond rates did not experience any particular tensions during Q1-21.
According to AGR estimates, the gross financing requirement of the Treasury by the end of 2021 should stand at MAD 107.7 billion, which includes a balance of budget deficit financing as well as Treasury arrears estimated by the appropriation bill 2021 at 43.6 billion dirhams and the treasury payments in 2021, excluding those of the first quarter of the year, of 64.1 billion dirhams.
Given the significant widening of the budget deficit to 82.4 billion dirhams in 2020 and 71.1 billion dirhams in 2021, the Treasury debt should reach 849 billion dirhams at the end of March 2021, against 832 billion dirhams a year earlier.
At the end of the year 2021, the total debt of the Treasury should exceed 900 billion dirhams of which 670 billion dirhams under the domestic debt, against 234 billion dirhams at the external level. Under these conditions, the weight of the external debt should stand at 24% of the total debt of the Treasury at the end of March 2021, and should reach 26% at the end of 2021.
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