Report warns Morocco risks growing old before growing rich despite strong economic growth

Morocco’s economy is growing at one of its fastest rates in years, but many young people continue to struggle to find work and improve their living standards, according to a new report that warns the country could “grow old before it grows rich” if persistent labor market challenges are not addressed.

The report, published by the African Center for Strategic Studies and Digitalization, says the benefits of strong economic growth have not reached many households, particularly young people. It argues that this disconnect has contributed to recent social tensions, including the wave of attempted crossings into Ceuta.

Morocco’s economy expanded by 4.9% in 2025, its strongest growth in about a decade. Inflation slowed sharply to 0.8%, the budget deficit narrowed to 3.5% of gross domestic product, and fixed investment increased by 14.4%, pointing to a stronger macroeconomic outlook.

However, while business investment accelerated, households saw little improvement in their daily lives. Private consumption rose by just 1.2%, suggesting that many families did not experience the benefits of the country’s economic expansion.

The report argues that people do not assess the economy based on GDP growth or government statistics. Instead, they judge it by whether they can find a job, afford housing and transportation, earn a decent income and build a future at home.

Morocco created about 193,000 net jobs in 2025, but the report estimates the country needs approximately 370,000 new jobs each year simply to absorb new entrants into the labor market.

Only 41.8% of Moroccans were either employed or actively seeking work during the first quarter of 2026, well below the global average. Women’s labor force participation was even lower at 17.5%.

Using a broader measure that includes people who are underemployed or have stopped looking for work, the report found labor underutilization reached 22.5% nationwide. Among young people aged 15 to 24, the rate climbed to 45.3%, indicating that nearly half are not fully participating in the labor market.

The report also highlights what it describes as an “experience trap,” in which employers demand previous work experience while many young job seekers are unable to gain that experience without securing their first job.

More than 56% of respondents with education beyond high school identified the lack of work experience as the main obstacle to finding employment.

The report estimates that approximately 2.94 million young Moroccans—roughly one in three people in that age group—are not in employment, education or training.

It warns that excluding such a large share of the country’s youth from the economy could cause Morocco to miss its demographic dividend and “grow old before growing rich,” describing young people as one of the country’s greatest untapped assets for future economic growth.

The report also points to M’diq-Fnideq province, near Ceuta, as an example of how economic hardship can accumulate over time. The province recorded an unemployment rate of 29% in 2024, while labor force participation declined from 51.4% in 2014 to 45.3%. Female unemployment reached 37.4%.

According to the report, these conditions left the province particularly vulnerable when rumors of a possible mass crossing into Ceuta began circulating. The rumors did not create the crisis on their own, the report says, but instead served as the spark that ignited years of accumulated economic frustration.

The report also links the situation to the closure of informal cross-border trade, arguing that many residents lost their primary source of income before alternative employment opportunities became available.