Why Morocco is expected to weather new U.S. tariffs better than many countries

The Trump administration’s sweeping tariff hikes have raised concerns about their impact on global trade, but Bank Al-Maghrib says Morocco is likely to be less affected than many of its competitors thanks to its relatively limited exposure to the U.S. market.

The bank examines the issue in a dedicated section of its 2025 annual report, concluding that while some Moroccan industries could come under pressure, the overall impact on the economy should remain limited.

One reason is that the United States has become a less important destination for Moroccan exports over the past few years. Between 2016 and 2019, the U.S. ranked as Morocco’s fourth-largest export market, accounting for about 4% of total exports, compared with 22% for France and 24% for Spain.

Since then, the United States importance has declined, slipping to eighth place after Moroccan phosphate fertilizer exports to the United States dropped 42.6% between 2019 and 2025 to MAD 3.2 billion following the introduction of U.S. countervailing duties.

The report says fertilizers still account for roughly 20% of Morocco’s exports to the U.S., making them the country’s largest export to the American market. They are followed by auto parts (14%), electronic components (6%) and citrus fruit (6%), sectors that could face additional pressure if tariffs become more restrictive.

Morocco also imports far more from the United States than it exports. Imports nearly tripled between 2016 and 2025 to reach MAD 76.1 billion, with 70% made up of energy products and capital goods. As a result, Morocco’s goods trade deficit with the U.S. widened sharply to MAD 61 billion in 2025 from MAD 18.2 billion in 2016.

While Morocco benefits from its free trade agreement with the United States, recent U.S. duties on phosphate fertilizers and an additional 2.5% tariff linked to forced labor compliance have increased costs for some exporters.

Despite these challenges, Bank Al-Maghrib says that Morocco’s limited dependence on the U.S. market should cushion the economy from the broader impact of Washington’s tariff policy.

The bank also says shifts in global supply chains could create opportunities for Moroccan exporters if companies seek alternative production bases outside countries facing steeper U.S. trade barriers.