A potentially extreme El Niño could cost affected African countries between $10 billion and $20 billion and trigger mass migration from areas hit by drought, flooding and food shortages, the African Development Bank’s top climate official told Reuters.
Anthony Nyong, the bank’s director for climate change and green growth, said heavily affected economies could lose an average of 1% to 2% of gross domestic product.
The bank identified Sudan, South Sudan, Democratic Republic of Congo, Somalia, Mali, Burundi and Nigeria among the countries facing the greatest risks.
Nyong warned that maize prices could double, while competition for water and grazing land could intensify existing conflicts and displacement.
Africa may need up to $100 billion in climate adaptation financing over the next year, compared with a previous estimate of about $50 billion, he said.
The AfDB plans a bank-wide review in September to assess risks to existing projects and possible emergency support.
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