Global oil prices are once again experiencing volatility as renewed security tensions in the Middle East push crude prices higher, raising questions about whether the recent decline in fuel prices in Morocco will come to an end.
Although oil prices edged slightly lower in early trading on Friday, both major benchmarks remained on track for weekly gains. Brent crude traded at around $76.5 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate stood near $72.2.
The rise has been driven largely by concerns over the security of energy supplies in the Middle East, particularly risks to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil transit routes. Those concerns have increased the so-called geopolitical risk premium in global markets.
However, expectations of higher production from the OPEC+ alliance and fears of slowing global demand have limited further price increases.
Fuel station operators cautious
Reda Nadifi, a representative of Morocco’s federation of fuel station owners, said drawing direct conclusions about domestic fuel prices based on geopolitical developments remains difficult.
“Assumptions linking fuel-price adjustments to events in the Middle East, such as the Strait of Hormuz crisis, remain simplistic and limited,” Nadifi told Hespress.
He noted that fuel station owners follow international developments like ordinary citizens but are often surprised when price updates fail to reflect market expectations.
According to Nadifi, station operators have little influence over pricing decisions, which are ultimately determined by fuel distribution companies.
“We sometimes expect prices to fall and they rise instead, or the opposite happens,” he said, adding that major price changes are occasionally spread over two adjustment periods, reflecting commercial strategies whose rationale remains unclear.
He stressed that fuel stations function merely as retailers responsible for distributing fuel to consumers rather than setting prices.
Experts warn of prolonged uncertainty
Houcine El Yamani, head of the National Front for the Rescue of the Moroccan Petroleum Refinery and secretary-general of the National Petroleum and Gas Union, argued that the recent understanding between Iran and the United States remains fragile.
“The agreement between Iran and America was fragile and never truly reached completion, pushing the world into a phase of open instability that goes beyond isolated crises,” El Yamani told Hespress.
He explained that Morocco’s domestic market remains highly exposed to external developments because the kingdom imports petroleum products from international markets.
El Yamani warned that Morocco faces what he described as “energy vulnerability,” particularly as profit margins in the sector have narrowed.
He expects fuel prices to enter a new upward cycle due to two main factors: continued tensions involving Iran and the United States and the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine, which he said has severely affected Russia’s refining industry after Moscow restricted exports of refined petroleum products.
Calls for long-term solutions
El Yamani emphasized that Morocco is especially vulnerable because it imports refined fuels rather than crude oil.
He argued that the country’s exposure to geopolitical shocks linked to oil and gas markets underscores the need for a long-term strategy to stabilize fuel prices and protect consumers.
According to El Yamani, price volatility weighs heavily on household purchasing power and complicates financial planning for workers and families that rely on private transportation.
He added that fuel prices reaching levels of 14 to 15 dirhams per liter would require a comprehensive reassessment of previous policy decisions to address the issue sustainably.
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