Morocco are strong favorite ahead of their third Group C match against Haiti at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, according to Opta’s supercomputer, which estimates an 81% chance of a comfortable win based on 25,000 pre-match simulations.
The remaining simulations give Haiti a 6.8% chance of victory and a 12.3% chance of a draw.
Group C outlook ahead of Morocco vs Haiti
Group C is still open, and Morocco are seeking three points in their clash with Haiti in Atlanta tonight to overtake five-time winners Brazil, reach seven points, and strengthen their position ahead of the last 32, where they could face the Netherlands, Japan, or Germany.
Haiti, on the other hand, have no chance of reaching the knockout stages, but will still be aiming to finish their 2026 campaign with their first-ever point.
They opened this year’s campaign with a 1-0 loss to Scotland, followed by a 3-0 defeat against Brazil.
Haiti cautions ahead of Morocco clash
Haiti go into tonight’s match with four yellow cards picked up across their opening games against Brazil and Scotland, with Carlens Arcus, Frantzdy Pierrot, Danley Jean Jacques, and Jean-Ricner Bellegarde all already booked, which could impact their playing time
Opta had already projected four of them in the starting XI against Morocco, meaning several players will need to tread carefully to avoid suspension, a situation Morocco could look to exploit.
There is only one Moroccan player booked, defender Diop, whose performances against Brazil and Scotland were modest, with observers noting some uncertainty in his positioning and slow reactions in defense.
The referee officiating the match, Dutch official Danny Makkelie, averages 3.41 yellow cards and 0.20 red cards per game, according to Sofascore.
World Cup records for Morocco and Haiti
Haiti, competing in their first World Cup since 1974, have lost all five of their World Cup matches across two appearances, conceding 18 goals and scoring only twice.
Morocco have won three of their last four World Cup group matches, a big improvement on their earlier record of only two wins in 16 games at this stage, according to Opta analysis.
Morocco’s win over Scotland on Matchday 2 was their sixth in World Cup history, matching the highest total by any African team in the competition. Ghana and Nigeria also have six wins each.
How Morocco and Haiti fared on Matchday 2
Opta analysis shows Morocco have been impressive in their first two games, with Achraf Hakimi leading all players with 15 duels won, 11 passes into the box and five shots, while only Brahim Díaz has created more chances, with five compared to Hakimi’s four
Saibari scored the fastest goal of the 2026 World Cup, finding the net after just 70 seconds against Scotland, with Diaz providing his second assist in the 2026 World Cup.
During their defeat to Brazil, Haiti managed just three shots on target and 43.3% possession.
They won 41.7% of their aerial duels, committed 14 fouls, and lost possession 32 times in their defensive third and 43 times in the middle third.
Haiti came close to scoring in the second half when Ricardo Adé met a corner in the 63rd minute, but Brazilian goalkeeper Alisson made the save.
Still, they created just 0.23 expected goals (xG) from eight attempts against Brazil.
Morocco, meanwhile, enjoyed 58.9% possession in their win over Scotland, won 56.3% of their aerial duels, and committed only eight fouls compared to Scotland’s 11.
The Atlas Lions lost possession 36 times in their defensive third and 41 times in the middle third.
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