The World Meteorological Organization’s warning of a likely El Niño event this summer does not amount to a direct drought or heatwave forecast for Morocco, the General Directorate of Meteorology said, cautioning that the country’s weather depends on a wider set of Atlantic, Mediterranean and regional climate systems.
The WMO said there is an 80% likelihood that El Niño conditions will develop between June and August 2026, with probabilities near or above 90% for the phenomenon to continue until at least November.
El Niño is linked to abnormal warming in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean and often raises global temperatures while shifting rainfall patterns across several regions.
For Morocco, DGM said, the signal is weaker and less predictable.
“The impact of El Niño is not direct or systematic across all regions of Morocco,” the agency said in written responses to Hespress, adding that any local effect depends on its interaction with “the state of the Atlantic Ocean, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the distribution of pressure systems affecting the kingdom.”
That distinction matters because Morocco’s rainfall season is shaped largely by Atlantic disturbances and pressure patterns over the North Atlantic and the Mediterranean. Climate research on Morocco has repeatedly found that winter rainfall, the main source of reservoir inflows and agricultural water, is strongly affected by the North Atlantic Oscillation and related atmospheric modes.
DGM said there is no fixed link between El Niño and rainfall volumes in Morocco. Some limited effects may appear in spring, especially in southern and semi arid regions, but they vary from one El Niño episode to another.
The agency pointed to recent drought years as evidence that Morocco’s water stress cannot be explained by ENSO, the broader El Niño Southern Oscillation cycle, alone. Between 2020 and 2024, Morocco endured successive severe droughts despite the dominance of La Niña conditions, the opposite phase of El Niño.
“This confirms that rainfall and water resources in the kingdom are determined by the interaction of several climatic and oceanic factors, not by El Niño or La Niña alone,” DGM said.
El Niño usually lifts global average temperatures and can intensify heat already driven by climate change. But DGM said Moroccan temperatures are also shaped by Saharan air masses, North African circulation patterns and Atlantic conditions.
The agency said Morocco’s long term climate outlook points to higher temperatures, more irregular rainfall and more frequent extremes, including longer droughts and concentrated heavy rainfall events. That puts pressure on agriculture, drinking water, food security, urban planning and early warning systems.
DGM said it tracks El Niño continuously, but does not build seasonal forecasts around it alone. Its forecasting approach combines global models with regional indicators, including the North Atlantic Oscillation, Mediterranean variability and atmospheric circulation over North Africa.
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