Morocco’s fertility rate fell below the population replacement threshold for the first time in 2024, marking a major demographic turning point for the North African kingdom, according to a recent analysis by France’s National Institute for Demographic Studies.
The study found that Morocco’s fertility rate declined to a historic low of 1.97 children per woman in 2024, dropping below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman needed to maintain population stability in the absence of migration.
The development signals the country’s entry into a new demographic phase characterized by fewer births and significant changes in family structures and social behavior.
In its analysis of demographic trends across the Maghreb, the institute noted that Morocco stands out for its uninterrupted decline in fertility over the past decade, unlike some neighboring countries that experienced periods of stabilization or temporary rebounds before fertility rates resumed falling.
Researchers identified the period between 2014 and 2024 as a critical turning point. After decades of gradual decline, Morocco has now joined a growing number of countries where fertility has fallen below replacement level.
Births remain concentrated among women aged 25 to 29
Despite the decline in fertility, the timing of childbirth has remained relatively stable. Moroccan women continue to have most of their children between the ages of 25 and 29, which remains the country’s peak fertility age group.
However, researchers observed a steady decline in birth rates across nearly all age categories. The decrease initially affected women aged 30 to 34 before extending to younger generations, contributing to the overall reduction in the average number of children per woman.
The study found that the average age of motherhood has remained largely unchanged, fluctuating between 30.3 and 30.6 years. Researchers said this suggests that lower fertility is driven more by couples choosing to have fewer children than by a widespread postponement of childbirth.
Marriage patterns offer mixed picture
The report also highlighted changes in marriage trends, noting that declining fertility does not appear to be directly linked to a weakening of marriage as an institution.
Census data show that the average age of women at first marriage fell from 26.3 years in 2004 to 24.6 years in 2024. Among men, however, the average age at first marriage continued to rise, increasing from 31.2 to 32.4 years over the same period.
According to the study’s authors, these trends indicate that factors beyond marriage patterns are increasingly shaping family size decisions in Morocco.
Modern contraception plays key role
Researchers identified the expansion of modern contraceptive use as one of the main drivers behind the fertility decline.
The proportion of married women using contraception increased from 40% in 1990 to nearly 70% in 2020, according to the study. The rise has been accompanied by broader adoption of modern methods, including birth control pills, intrauterine devices, hormonal injections, implants and sterilization.
The growing availability and use of contraception have enabled couples to exercise greater control over family planning and the number of children they choose to have, the report said.
Economic pressures influence family choices
The study also linked demographic changes to economic and labor market conditions.
Persistent difficulties in finding employment, particularly among young graduates, continue to affect life choices and family planning decisions.
Women’s employment patterns illustrate these challenges. Female participation in the labor market increases steadily through the late twenties but often declines after age 30, a period that frequently coincides with greater family and caregiving responsibilities.
Researchers said the vulnerability of women’s professional careers may contribute to smaller family sizes and changing household priorities.
Aging population expected to accelerate
The institute warned that Morocco is likely to experience a faster pace of population aging in the coming decades.
People aged 65 and older currently account for approximately 13.8% of the country’s population. That share is expected to rise significantly as fertility continues to decline and life expectancy increases.
Demographers said the trend will present major policy challenges for Morocco, particularly in healthcare, social protection, employment and pension financing.
The study concluded that the country’s demographic transition reflects broader economic, social and cultural transformations that are gradually reshaping Moroccan society.
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