OECD: Morocco's economy set to hit 5% growth in 2026, but energy reliance clouds optimism

Morocco’s economy is expected to grow by 5% in 2026, supported by stronger agricultural output and continued public investment in infrastructure projects, according to a new outlook from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)

The forecast comes after estimated economic growth of 4.6% in 2025. The OECD expects growth to slow slightly to 3.9% in 2027.

The organization said abundant rainfall during the winter season has improved water reserves and is expected to drive a recovery in agriculture. Agricultural output is projected to increase by around 15% in 2026 before returning to more normal levels the following year.

Infrastructure spending is also expected to remain a key driver of economic activity, supporting growth in the construction and manufacturing sectors.

Despite the positive outlook, the OECD said Morocco remains vulnerable to higher energy prices because it imports about 90% of its energy needs.

The report said rising energy costs are expected to push inflation higher in 2026. Inflation, which fell to 0.7% in 2025, is forecast to rise to 3.2% next year before easing to 1.4% in 2027.

The increase in energy prices is also expected to widen Morocco’s current account deficit. The deficit exceeded 2% of gross domestic product in 2025 and is projected to reach 3.1% in 2026 and 3.3% in 2027 as import costs rise.

The OECD said that business confidence, exports and tourism revenues were improving in early 2026 before the latest energy price shock.

The labor market continues to face challenges. The unemployment rate fell slightly from 13.4% in 2024 to 13% in 2025, but remains high among young people and women. Youth unemployment stood at 37.2%, while unemployment among women reached 20.5%.

The OECD also warned that escalating geopolitical tensions could affect Morocco’s exports and economic growth. The country sends about 60% of its goods exports to the European Union, making it sensitive to economic conditions in the bloc.

The report said Morocco could benefit from stronger global demand for phosphate-based fertilizers, which accounted for 21% of export revenues in 2025. However, prolonged disruptions in the Gulf region could affect supplies of ammonia and sulfur used by the domestic fertilizer industry.