Morocco’s cereal import dependence hardens into long term vulnerability, study says

Morocco’s reliance on imported cereals is becoming structural rather than cyclical, driven by very high domestic consumption, unstable national production and increasingly difficult budget tradeoffs as water stress tightens and global markets remain volatile, according to a study published in the African Scientific Journal.

Researchers Abdellatif Noureddine and Ahmed Abriane argue that cereals are no longer a simple variable adjusted through imports when harvests disappoint. They describe a strategic constraint at the intersection of food security, public finances and geopolitical exposure.

The study notes that Morocco consumes about 255 kilograms of wheat per person per year, placing it among the countries most dependent on the grain, which underpins both dietary habits and social stability through the centrality of bread.

Demand continues to rise with urbanization, population growth and the expansion of processed food consumption, the authors say. On the supply side, output remains highly erratic because most cereal acreage is rainfed and therefore vulnerable to climatic swings. In good years, Morocco can post strong harvests, but drought years can push production to levels that cover only a limited share of national needs.

The study says the inflection point comes when imports stop functioning as a supplement and become a pillar of the system. National cereal consumption now exceeds 11 million tonnes per year, while some recent seasons, including 2024, covered less than one fifth of demand, the authors write. That shift makes cereals a foreign currency issue and a public finance issue, particularly because Morocco lacks energy rents that can buffer external shocks.

Subsidy policy sits at the center of this balance. The state maintained an administered price for national soft wheat flour to contain bread prices, reinforcing support during the 2022 and 2023 global price spikes. Repeated shocks, however, have increased the bill, with the study pointing to a marked rise in the value of cereal imports in 2024 and added pressure on the trade balance and compensation mechanisms.

In response, the authors say Morocco has strengthened strategic stocks since 2023 under ONICL, aiming to build reserves equivalent to several months of consumption. Longer term, they cite Generation Green and the cereals contract program, while warning that water scarcity and limited irrigation constrain gains and that dietary diversification will also shape food sovereignty.