Report: Algeria shows fatigue over Sahara as Morocco consolidates control

Algeria is showing growing signs of fatigue over the decades-long Moroccan Sahara conflict, while Morocco continues to consolidate control over the territory, according to a new report by Spain’s Royal Elcano Institute.

The think tank said Algiers appears “exhausted” by a dispute that no longer yields political or strategic benefits. Its absence from the October 31 UN Security Council vote on the Sahara issue was seen as evidence of a gradual disengagement.

The UN adopted Resolution 2797, which the report described as a decisive turning point, effectively closing the chapter on the 1991 peace plan that envisioned a referendum on the territory’s status.

According to the report, Morocco now holds a clear advantage over both the Polisario Front and Algeria, controlling roughly 80 percent of the territory, which the UN still classifies as “non-self-governing.” Rabat’s position has strengthened through both military presence and expanding international recognition, particularly from the United States.

Since rejoining the African Union in 2017, Morocco has worked to reduce the influence of the self-proclaimed Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR), now recognized by only 47 countries, compared with 84 in previous decades.

The report said Morocco’s diplomatic momentum extends well beyond Africa. Major Western powers, including the United States, France, Spain, Germany, and the United Kingdom, now broadly support Rabat’s autonomy plan as the most realistic and durable solution.

A turning point came in 2020, when then-U.S. President Donald Trump formally recognized Morocco’s sovereignty over the Sahara, reshaping global positions on the dispute.

At home, the Elcano Institute said Morocco has succeeded in rallying national unity around the “southern provinces,” investing heavily in infrastructure, ports, renewable energy, and job creation in the region.

By contrast, the report said many Sahrawis remain in difficult conditions in the Tindouf refugee camps in Algeria.

Despite rulings by the International Court of Justice in 1975 and the EU Court of Justice in 2024 reaffirming the Sahara’s status as “separate and distinct” under UN processes, the Elcano Institute concluded that the latest UN resolution makes a long-promised referendum increasingly unlikely.