US-backed Morocco–Algeria deal could revive Maghreb trade, energy, and security cooperation

A potential U.S.-brokered agreement between Morocco and Algeria could do more than resolve the longstanding Moroccan Sahara dispute, analysts say, offering a chance to revive economic, energy, and security cooperation across North Africa.

The Middle East Institute report notes that a breakthrough between the two neighbors, whose rivalry has shaped the Maghreb for decades, could open avenues for smoother trade, shared energy infrastructure, coordinated Sahel security, and a unified approach to migration flows to Europe.

The timing follows the Oct. 31 UN Security Council resolution endorsing Morocco’s autonomy plan for Western Sahara, widely regarded as Rabat’s most significant diplomatic success in recent years. U.S. envoy Steve Witkoffrecently told CBS’s 60 Minutes that Washington aims to finalize a Morocco–Algeria deal within 60 days, signaling President Donald Trump’s pursuit of a high-profile foreign policy achievement.

According to the analysis, Morocco currently holds the upper hand, with backing from the U.S., Spain, France, and the U.K., along with defense partnerships and alignment with the Abraham Accords enhancing its leverage. Algeria, while facing economic and geopolitical pressure, remains a key gas supplier to Europe and a military power with influence in the Sahel, giving it significant bargaining power in negotiations.

The report outlines a phased approach, starting with a cease-fire with the Polisario Front and direct Rabat-Algiers talks, then expanding cooperation in energy, border security, and military confidence-building. Analysts suggest even modest collaboration could eventually lead to a treaty-based North African security system linking Morocco, Algeria, Europe, and the United States.

For Washington, success in brokering the deal could cement U.S. influence in a region where Russia and China have been expanding their presence, analysts say.