The Middle East Institute (MEI) has called for a comprehensive and phased settlement between Morocco and Algeria that would address the Sahara dispute and broader regional tensions, according to a new report released this week.
The report recommends that the first phase of reconciliation should establish core principles and a timeline for resolution, while deferring the final settlement to a later stage. It suggests that the Polisario Front should commit to halting attacks and declaring a cease-fire, while Morocco adopts a defensive posture, refraining from military operations beyond current lines of control.
The MEI also proposed that the UN peacekeeping mission in the Sahara (MINURSO) be empowered to create a mechanism for incident reporting and escalation prevention, with an expanded mandate to monitor the cease-fire and ensure adequate funding and logistical support.
In its recommendations to Washington, the report calls for a clear, pre-resolution framework that outlines the details of Morocco’s autonomy plan, with defined stages and timelines. It urges the inclusion of representatives from refugee camps, the diaspora, and residents of the southern provinces (not just the Polisario) in the consultation process.
The document also proposes a U.S.- and EU-funded program for disarmament and reintegration of Polisario fighters, alongside the UN-led refugee repatriation process.
The report underscores the need for a direct dialogue channel between Morocco and Algeria under U.S. supervision, initially aimed at reducing hostile rhetoric, easing public tensions, and developing communication protocols and technical cooperation mechanisms, particularly on border management.
During the implementation phase, MEI suggests deeper structural and security confidence-building measures, including a military dialogue between the two countries to ensure border transparency, notification procedures for military exercises, and a multilateral counterterrorism framework involving the U.S., EU, Morocco, and Algeria. This framework would include a development component financed by the EU and coordinated regional mechanisms to manage migration and prevent political strain.
According to the report, the Sahara dispute “is part of a broader competition for regional leadership between Morocco and Algeria,” rooted in the post-colonial formation of both states. It recalls that the two countries fought a brief border war in 1963, and though it did not alter borders, it shaped divergent political trajectories: Morocco aligning with the West and free trade, while Algeria embraced its revolutionary, anti-colonial identity and solidarity with the Global South.
While the ideological divide has softened, the legacy of rivalry persists. The report notes that both countries compete for influence in Africa, the Arab world, and Europe, including in defense capabilities and trade diplomacy. It argues that resolving the Sahara issue could “open the door to broader reconciliation, though it alone will not end the rivalry.”
MEI analysts conclude that time favors Morocco, citing its growing diplomatic momentum and international support for its autonomy plan. They argue that the only factor likely to motivate Morocco toward negotiations would be U.S. pressure to secure a foreign policy achievement reminiscent of the Trump administration’s recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over its Sahara in 2020.
By contrast, the report finds Algeria and the Polisario in a defensive position, with Algiers focused on countering Morocco’s influence rather than defining proactive goals. It warns that Algeria’s current trajectory “is unsustainable” and that any agreement must offer it economic and security incentives to balance the outcome of the Sahara issue.
The study concludes that Algeria must pursue economic reform and investment while maintaining stability and addressing the refugee situation in Tindouf. International support for refugee resettlement, in coordination with the Polisario, would be crucial, it adds.
“Only a mix of security, economic, and political incentives can transform Algeria from a regional spoiler into an effective negotiating partner,” the report concludes.
add your comment
Terms of publication : Not to offend the writer, people, sacred things, or attack religions or the divine self, and refrain from racist incitement and insults.