Weekly risk watch: Irregular migration, banks and judgements

Welcome to this week’s edition of our Weekly Risk Watch, offering insights into the economic, political, and security updates that could have significant implications for your business or daily life.

Economy and markets:

• Worsening living conditions: According to HCP, early 78% of Moroccan households say their living standards have worsened over the past year amid persistent inflation and stagnant incomes.

• Dirham Slips 0.6% Against Dollar and Euro: Bank Al-Maghrib reported the Moroccan currency weakened between October 9 and 15, while reserve assets rose to MAD 420.5 billion.

• Access to proper bank loans remains a major challenge for half of Morocco’s small and medium-sized businesses, with many relying on informal financing or facing high interest rates, collateral demands, and bureaucratic hurdles, according to a European Investment Bank survey.

• Morocco’s farmers face mounting anxiety as delayed autumn rains and 32% dam levels threaten crops and pastures, especially in regions dependent on rainfed agriculture, with heat-driven evaporation and halted subsidies worsening pressures on livestock breeders.

• Retail vegetable and fruit prices have surged across Morocco, with some products reaching 10 MAD per kilogram and avocados up to 50 MAD, reflecting widening gaps between moderate wholesale costs and inflated market prices.

Political stability:

• Five people, including three minors, were arrested in Oulad Ayad for allegedly writing offensive graffiti targeting Morocco’s sacred and national institutions on a public road, with investigations launched immediately and suspects placed in custody pending prosecution.

• Morocco’s National Coordination of University Graduates with Disabilities warned of ongoing delays in implementing constitutional and legal rights, despite repeated official pledges, threatening protests over issues including public-sector hiring, disability cards, accessible services, and social coverage.

• Youth members of Morocco’s Gen Z movement in the Eastern region, covering Oujda, Berkane, Nador, Jerada, Bouarfa, and Figuig, announced their full withdrawal from the movement, dissolving local committees and halting planned activities, citing the group’s deviation from its founding principles, alliances with opposing factions, and a shift of core demands like health and education to secondary priorities.

• A traffic accident on the Ghasat–Dmanat road in Ouarzazate killed six people, including four students, and left another student critically injured, highlighting the dangers of poorly maintained mountain roads and informal transport.

• A Casablanca court sentenced a local administrative aide to one year in prison and a 500-dirham fine for participating in an unauthorized protest and giving false information to police during youth-led Generation Z demonstrations, despite his defense arguing the charges were unfounded and his presence coincidental.

Cross-border stability:

• Moroccan authorities maintained tight security in Fnideq to prevent a mass crossing toward Ceuta, setting up coastal checkpoints and patrolling forests.

• Security forces detained around 5,000 people, including 3,000 Moroccans, across northern regions after uncovering online calls for a coordinated irregular migration toward Ceuta. Authorities said the operation, involving several security units, prevented a mass border breach planned for October 15.

• Morocco’s Royal Gendarmerie foiled a major irregular migration attempt off the coast of El Jadida, arresting 20 people and seizing a Zodiac boat and fuel containers, after intercepting vehicles used to transport migrants and equipment.