Morocco recorded strong economic growth in the first half of 2025, standing at 4.7%, the highest among Southern and Eastern Mediterranean (SEMED) countries covered by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) outlook report.
The report, which forecasts stronger economic growth in the SEMED region, noted that Morocco’s growth already accelerated from 3.7% in 2023 to 3.8% in 2024 year-on-year.
Economic growth in other countries was lower, with Egypt at 4.2%, Jordan at 2.7%, Lebanon at 1.9%, and Tunisia at 2.4%.
Annual inflation in Morocco fell to an average of 1.2% between January and July 2025, mainly due to lower food, fuel, and transport prices, while it averaged 15.7% in Egypt, 1.9% in Jordan, and 5.6% in Tunisia.
Morocco’s fiscal deficit dropped to 3.9% of GDP in 2024, 0.4 percentage points below the budget target, supported by higher tax revenues.
The report stated that the government plans to lower the fiscal deficit to 3.5% of GDP in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026.
It also noted that goods exports grew by 5.8% in 2024, driven by phosphate and automotive sales, while annual tourist arrivals surged 20% to 17.4 million.
Tourist arrivals then rose an additional 16% year-on-year from January to July 2025.
Official reserves reached US$45 billion in August 2025, up 12% year-on-year and covering more than five months of imports.
The report highlighted that growth is projected to average 4.2% in 2025 and 4.0% in 2026, supported by public investment, whereas in Tunisia, growth is expected to reach only 2.1% in 2026.
For downside risks, the report cited a potential slowdown in European markets, which could reduce remittances and export demand, as well as the risk of adverse weather shocks.
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